Saratoga, Fri Aug 28, 2026
10 races · published 12:38 PM ET · card locked
3 value plays today · 8 races we're passing
Late change since this card was published
- Listed as Early--Stake. Caught pre-lock in the flag cross-check; the card was published with the field as entered and this erratum voids the selection. confirmed 16:39 UTC · NYRA official scratches and program changes sheet, last updated 10:19:26 AM ET
The card above is not edited. It was hash-stamped before post. Any flagged runner listed here is void at scoring, never counted as a loss.
Edge of the Day
7AWESOMESAUCE
Race 8 · 1 3/8 miles turf
21%model4/1fair8/1boardWINpaid at the close
Our biggest edge on the card today (+12 pts over the board), the price may move either way into post; you’re paid the close. Chosen by rule: the flag with the most value, graded like any other.
Today at SaratogaMostly Sunny, 81°F, wind 7 mph · rain 8%, no off-track flagNWS forecast
Also on TwinSpires
Bet these plays at TwinSpiresToday’s card runs on TwinSpires as Edge Card Plays. Edge Card is an independent publication and is not a TwinSpires product; the plays and the record are the same ones published here.
Flags 3 of 10 races
New here? How to read a flag · Model, Fair, Board and the pari-mutuel closing rule, explained once.
Today’s plays3 flags
RaceHorseModelBoardEdge
R15Rockabye39%8/5+9 ptsR85Venencia12%12/1+6 ptsR87Awesomesauce21%8/1+12 ptsFlagShare
5ROCKABYE
Model
Fair
Board
39%
3/2
8/5
our win %
break-even
the morning line
▸ WIN BET · paid at the close
Likely bet down A short board price for this track, and prices this short more often shorten by post than not. Still a win play, but expect a smaller number than the board shows, because pari-mutuel pays the close. Size it smaller.
Ranks #1 in our power figure blend. Barn angle strong here
Data · Brisnet
How it sets up
Nobody in here is clearly entitled to the lead. Two have shown early speed, under the count that would rate the race contested.
The model’s read ▾
ROCKABYE is one of the more likely winners we flag today, and the board still prices it like a longer shot. The gap is smaller in points than some, but it is on a horse we genuinely rate to win.
It tops our own win number, 17.5 points clear of the next one.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | ROCKABYE ◀ | 39% | 3/2 | 8/5 | 1/39d |
| 3 | QUARTZ MOUNTAIN | 22% | 7/2 | 5/2 | •1/717d |
| 6 | PAY MONTHLY | 13% | 13/2 | 5/1 | •1/913d |
| 2 | BOLT ISLAND | 11% | 8/1 | 6/1 | •1/916d |
| 4 | BREAKER | 10% | 9/1 | 9/2 | 9/3116d |
| 1 | HORMESIS | 5% | 20/1 | 8/1 | 23/6512d |
Scratched · voidShare
5VENENCIA
Model
Fair
Board
12%
7/1
12/1
our win %
break-even
the morning line
▸ WIN BET · paid at the close
Price may move A mid board price, it can hold or shorten into post. You are paid the closing price either way, so bet the horse and take the number you get.
Ranks #2 in our power figure blend.
Data · Brisnet
How it sets up
No one horse is entitled to the lead. Two have shown early speed, under the count that would rate the race contested.
The model’s read ▾
A price play. VENENCIA is not likely on its own, but the board has it longer than we do, and on a horse this price that is where a payout actually lives.
It rates fourth on our own win number, 8.4 points behind the top.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | AWESOMESAUCE | 21% | 4/1 | 8/1 | •1/266d |
| 6 | STORM MIAMI | 13% | 13/2 | 4/1 | 47/1276d |
| 4 | MASSARAT | 13% | 13/2 | 9/2 | •1/657d |
| 5 | VENENCIA ◀ | 12% | 7/1 | 12/1 | 22/3039d |
| 8 | SILVOLOGY | 11% | 8/1 | 7/2 | 26/556d |
| 1 | EVERSHED | 10% | 9/1 | 5/1 | 3/47d |
| 9 | UNMERITED FAVOR | 8% | 12/1 | 8/1 | 31/1106d |
| 3 | WHITETHORN | 7% | 15/1 | 10/1 | 59/627d |
| 2 | SNIPSNIPPITYSNIP | 6% | 15/1 | 8/1 | 5/557d |
FlagShare
7AWESOMESAUCE
Model
Fair
Board
21%
4/1
8/1
our win %
break-even
the morning line
▸ WIN BET · paid at the close
Price may move A mid board price, it can hold or shorten into post. You are paid the closing price either way, so bet the horse and take the number you get.
Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.
Data · Brisnet
How it sets up
Nothing in here has a clear claim on the lead. Two have shown early speed, under the count that would rate the race contested.
The model’s read ▾
This is the widest gap on today’s card. When our number is that far clear of the board, the disagreement is the whole reason to be here.
It tops our own win number, 7.3 points clear of the next one.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | AWESOMESAUCE ◀ | 21% | 4/1 | 8/1 | •1/266d |
| 6 | STORM MIAMI | 13% | 13/2 | 4/1 | 47/1276d |
| 4 | MASSARAT | 13% | 13/2 | 9/2 | •1/657d |
| 5 | VENENCIA | 12% | 7/1 | 12/1 | 22/3039d |
| 8 | SILVOLOGY | 11% | 8/1 | 7/2 | 26/556d |
| 1 | EVERSHED | 10% | 9/1 | 5/1 | 3/47d |
| 9 | UNMERITED FAVOR | 8% | 12/1 | 8/1 | 31/1106d |
| 3 | WHITETHORN | 7% | 15/1 | 10/1 | 59/627d |
| 2 | SNIPSNIPPITYSNIP | 6% | 15/1 | 8/1 | 5/557d |
What to know about each race today
R15 1/2 furlongs turfMaiden special weight
- 1Hormesisfirst start on turf · top third of this field on turf breeding
- 3Quartz Mountainwent off at 7/5 last time and finished 7th
- 4Breakerblinkers on
R26 1/2 furlongs dirtClaiming $12,500
3 of the 7 were claimed last time out
- 6Jackie The JokerRicardo Santana Jr back aboard, a winner on this horse four starts back
- 7Bellacosedrops from $45,000 to $16,000 off a 5th
R31 1/8 miles dirtClaiming $12,500
- 1Interlock Empireclaimed last time out
- 2Shipsationalclaimed last time out
- 5Spoilerdrops from $30,000 to $12,500 off a second
R46 1/2 furlongs dirtOptional claiming $16,000
3 of the 8 were claimed last time out
- 5TizmarkusJose Lezcano back aboard, a winner on this horse three starts back
R51 1/16 miles turfMaiden special weight
4 of the 10 have never gone a mile or longer
- 2Bluegrass Princessfirst start on turf · top third of this field on turf breeding
- 1Royal County Downbottom third of this field on breeding for the trip
- 4Hunter Creektop third of this field on breeding for the trip
- 5Amelia In Airfirst start on turf
- 7Harpoontop third of this field on breeding for the trip
R66 1/2 furlongs dirtMaiden special weight
3 of the 11 add blinkers
R71 1/16 miles turfStakes, $200,000 purse
- 1Two's A CrowdJose Lezcano back aboard, a winner on this horse four starts back
- 4Mi BagoJose L Ortiz back aboard, a winner on this horse two starts back
R81 3/8 miles turfGrade 3 stakes
- 7AwesomesauceJose L Ortiz back aboard, a winner on this horse four starts back
R96 furlongs dirtOptional claiming $25,000
3 of the 9 were claimed last time out
- 3Confirmed StarEliseo Ruiz is here for this one ride, the first of the meet
R105 1/2 furlongs turfAllowance $105,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starter
- 6East Coast GirlEmanuel De Diego is here for this one ride, the first of the meet · first start on turf · bottom third of this field on turf breeding
- 3Fireballinfirst start on turf
- 4King Puckblinkers off
- 9Van Vollenhovenblinkers on
Facts about the race, not predictions. A class move is shown with the finish it came off so you can judge it; we do not claim any of these wins, and only the flagged win bets above are graded on the record.
The whole card every runner, our number beside the board
| R | # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Edge | Why | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R15 1/2 furlongs turfMaiden special weightEven pace1 flag | ||||||||
| R1 | 5 | ROCKABYE | 39% | 3/2 | 8/5 | +9 | 1·B· | 1/39d |
| R1 | 3 | QUARTZ MOUNTAIN | 22% | 7/2 | 5/2 | -1 | 2·B· | •1/717d |
| R1 | 6 | PAY MONTHLY | 13% | 13/2 | 5/1 | 0 | ···· | •1/913d |
| R1 | 2 | BOLT ISLAND | 11% | 8/1 | 6/1 | 0 | ···· | •1/916d |
| R1 | 4 | BREAKER | 10% | 9/1 | 9/2 | -4 | 3··· | 9/3116d |
| R1 | 1 | HORMESIS | 5% | 20/1 | 8/1 | -4 | 4··· | 23/6512d |
| R26 1/2 furlongs dirtClaiming $12,500Contested pace likely (3 early-speed types)pass | ||||||||
| R2 | 7 | BELLACOSE | 31% | 5/2 | 9/5 | +3 | 1▼BW | 14/1633d |
| R2 | 2 | AH CA IRA | 18% | 9/2 | 3/1 | -1 | 2▲·W | 40/5012d |
| R2 | 4 | SHORT SHIFT | 13% | 13/2 | 7/2 | -4 | 3▼·W | 49/5236d |
| R2 | 5 | OPEN SOUL AUTISM | 11% | 8/1 | 10/1 | +4 | 5▲·W | 53/5528d |
| R2 | 1 | CURLIN'S MAGIC | 10% | 9/1 | 8/1 | +2 | 4·B· | •1/2654d |
| R2 | 3 | MISS LAO | 9% | 10/1 | 8/1 | +1 | 6··· | 9/337d |
| R2 | 6 | JACKIE THE JOKER | 7% | 12/1 | 6/1 | -4 | 7▼B· | 23/3335d |
| R31 1/8 miles dirtClaiming $12,500Lone speedpass | ||||||||
| R3 | 5 | SPOILER | 36% | 9/5 | 1/1 | -3 | 1·BW | •1/1710d |
| R3 | 1 | INTERLOCK EMPIRE | 18% | 9/2 | 4/1 | +3 | 2··· | 5/2331d |
| R3 | 6 | FEVER NIGHT | 13% | 13/2 | 5/1 | 0 | 3▲B· | 5/369d |
| R3 | 7 | POLAR BEAR PLUNGE | 9% | 10/1 | 6/1 | -2 | 6··· | 1/215d |
| R3 | 2 | SHIPSATIONAL | 9% | 10/1 | 8/1 | 0 | 5··· | 7/85d |
| R3 | 3 | AMEDEUS MUSIC | 7% | 12/1 | 15/1 | +3 | 4·BW | 19/2437d |
| R3 | 4 | EXPENSIVE CUT | 7% | 12/1 | 10/1 | 0 | 7··W | 29/2937d |
| R46 1/2 furlongs dirtOptional claiming $16,000Contested pace likely (4 early-speed types)pass | ||||||||
| R4 | 6 | SHOOT THE NICKEL | 21% | 7/2 | 5/2 | -1 | 2▲B· | 18/8742d |
| R4 | 1 | NORWICH | 20% | 4/1 | 3/1 | 0 | 1▲·· | 8/7847d |
| R4 | 8 | NORMANDY COAST | 18% | 9/2 | 4/1 | +2 | 4▲B· | 2/116d |
| R4 | 5 | TIZMARKUS | 15% | 11/2 | 4/1 | 0 | 3··· | 6/1512d |
| R4 | 3 | KUNSHAN BRIDGE | 11% | 8/1 | 6/1 | 0 | 5··· | 5/510d |
| R4 | 2 | PRINCIP | 7% | 12/1 | 8/1 | -1 | 6··· | •1/1448d |
| R4 | 7 | TIMAEUS | 5% | 20/1 | 15/1 | 0 | 7··· | 12/1835d |
| R4 | 4 | GRAYWING | 3% | 30/1 | 30/1 | 0 | 8·B· | — |
| R51 1/16 miles turfMaiden special weightEven pacepass | ||||||||
| R5 | 10 | MANDY STEPH | 19% | 4/1 | 7/2 | +2 | 1··· | 3/48d |
| R5 | 2 | BLUEGRASS PRINCESS | 15% | 11/2 | 4/1 | -1 | 2··W | •1/766d |
| R5 | 6 | SELLONTHENEWS | 14% | 6/1 | 9/2 | 0 | ···· | 22/746d |
| R5 | 1 | ROYAL COUNTY DOWN | 12% | 7/1 | 5/1 | -1 | 3··W | 4/617d |
| R5 | 9 | CELEBRATE | 11% | 8/1 | 6/1 | 0 | 4··· | 8/117d |
| R5 | 3 | BITTERSWEET MEMORY | 8% | 11/1 | 8/1 | 0 | 5··· | 3/285d |
| R5 | 8 | HARMONY MILL | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | 0 | 6·B· | 7/357d |
| R5 | 5 | AMELIA IN AIR | 5% | 20/1 | 12/1 | -1 | 8··· | 9/456d |
| R5 | 7 | HARPOON | 5% | 20/1 | 20/1 | +1 | 7··· | 23/578d |
| R5 | 4 | HUNTER CREEK | 4% | 25/1 | 15/1 | -1 | 9··· | 1/25d |
| R66 1/2 furlongs dirtMaiden special weightContested pace likely (3 early-speed types)pass | ||||||||
| R6 | 9 | MCMOON | 18% | 9/2 | 4/1 | +2 | 1▼·W | 2/396d |
| R6 | 11 | HAMMERIN HENRY | 16% | 11/2 | 5/1 | +3 | 2▼B· | 6/147d |
| R6 | 7 | FREEDOM CHARGE | 13% | 7/1 | 7/2 | -5 | 5▼·· | •1/812d |
| R6 | 8 | FIVE GRAND | 13% | 7/1 | 6/1 | +1 | 3▲·· | 4/336d |
| R6 | 10 | MAXIMILIAN | 10% | 9/1 | 6/1 | -1 | 4··· | •1/87d |
| R6 | 4 | JUST YOU BABY | 7% | 12/1 | 10/1 | 0 | ···· | 4/66d |
| R6 | 2 | THEMISTOCLES | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | 0 | ···W | •1/156d |
| R6 | 5 | COMICAL MISCHIEF | 5% | 20/1 | 15/1 | 0 | ···W | •1/189d |
| R6 | 6 | MR RIGATONI | 5% | 20/1 | 15/1 | 0 | ···· | 12/369d |
| R6 | 3 | ED CHARLES | 4% | 25/1 | 15/1 | -1 | 6▲·· | 6/68d |
| R6 | 1 | DOMINICGOFRISKEM | 4% | 25/1 | 20/1 | 0 | ··B· | 3/411d |
| R71 1/16 miles turfStakes, $200,000 purseContested pace likely (3 early-speed types)pass | ||||||||
| R7 | 4 | MI BAGO | 28% | 5/2 | 2/1 | +2 | 1▼·W | 46/5528d |
| R7 | 2 | SPIRIT OF ST LOUIS | 24% | 3/1 | 3/1 | +5 | 2··W | •1/167d |
| R7 | 7 | SOUNDS LIKE A PLAN | 15% | 11/2 | 6/1 | +4 | 3▼·W | 7/1516d |
| R7 | 8 | GEORGE BRIGGS | 13% | 7/1 | 7/2 | -5 | 4▲·· | 7/487d |
| R7 | 5 | TONKA WARRIOR | 8% | 12/1 | 8/1 | -1 | 5▲·· | 2/312d |
| R7 | 6 | ITSALLCOMINTOGETHA | 5% | 20/1 | 12/1 | -1 | 6▼·W | 1/111d |
| R7 | 1 | TWO'S A CROWD | 3% | 30/1 | 15/1 | -2 | 7·B· | 1/327d |
| R7 | 3 | LEON BLUE | 2% | 50/1 | 20/1 | -2 | 8·B· | 2/37d |
| R7 | 9 | RUSSIAN REALM | 2% | 50/1 | 30/1 | -1 | 9▲·W | •1/536d |
| R81 3/8 miles turfGrade 3 stakesEven pace2 flags | ||||||||
| R8 | 7 | AWESOMESAUCE | 21% | 4/1 | 8/1 | +12 | 1··W | •1/266d |
| R8 | 6 | STORM MIAMI | 13% | 13/2 | 4/1 | -2 | 3·B· | 47/1276d |
| R8 | 4 | MASSARAT | 13% | 13/2 | 9/2 | -1 | 4··W | •1/657d |
| R8 | 5 | VENENCIA | 12% | 7/1 | 12/1 | +6 | 2··· | 22/3039d |
| R8 | 8 | SILVOLOGY | 11% | 8/1 | 7/2 | -7 | 6··· | 26/556d |
| R8 | 1 | EVERSHED | 10% | 9/1 | 5/1 | -4 | 5·B· | 3/47d |
| R8 | 9 | UNMERITED FAVOR | 8% | 12/1 | 8/1 | -1 | 7··· | 31/1106d |
| R8 | 3 | WHITETHORN | 7% | 15/1 | 10/1 | 0 | 8··· | 59/627d |
| R8 | 2 | SNIPSNIPPITYSNIP | 6% | 15/1 | 8/1 | -3 | 9··W | 5/557d |
| R96 furlongs dirtOptional claiming $25,000Even pacepass | ||||||||
| R9 | 4 | BAM'S BLISS KISS | 20% | 4/1 | 3/1 | 0 | 1··· | 7/206d |
| R9 | 9 | SWEET NOTE | 16% | 11/2 | 7/2 | -2 | 3··· | 7/187d |
| R9 | 6 | CITY BLOCKS | 15% | 11/2 | 5/1 | +2 | 2··· | 2/2631d |
| R9 | 2 | PROUD FOOT | 11% | 8/1 | 8/1 | +2 | 4··· | 17/3914d |
| R9 | 8 | SASSY PRINCESS | 10% | 9/1 | 4/1 | -5 | 7··· | 2/75d |
| R9 | 1 | MAJESTIC RETURN | 9% | 10/1 | 8/1 | 0 | 6··W | •1/115d |
| R9 | 3 | CONFIRMED STAR | 8% | 11/1 | 12/1 | +2 | 5··· | 1/28d |
| R9 | 7 | HEAVENLY LIGHT | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | 0 | 8··· | 85/14127d |
| R9 | 5 | FUGITIVE STAR | 5% | 20/1 | 15/1 | 0 | 9··· | 5/115d |
| R105 1/2 furlongs turfAllowance $105,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterContested pace likely (5 early-speed types)pass | ||||||||
| R10 | 1 | ILLMATIC | 35% | 9/5 | 7/5 | +3 | 1▲·· | 2/59d |
| R10 | 8 | JOKER ON FIRE | 17% | 5/1 | 3/1 | -2 | 2··· | 7/128d |
| R10 | 5 | RHYTON | 12% | 7/1 | 6/1 | +1 | 4▲·· | 3/229d |
| R10 | 6 | EAST COAST GIRL | 9% | 10/1 | 10/1 | +2 | 3▼BW | •1/159d |
| R10 | 3 | FIREBALLIN | 7% | 15/1 | 12/1 | +1 | 5▼·W | •1/399d |
| R10 | 9 | VAN VOLLENHOVEN | 6% | 15/1 | 10/1 | -1 | 6··W | •1/117d |
| R10 | 7 | STORMY BIRTHDAY | 5% | 20/1 | 12/1 | -1 | 7·B· | 31/1396d |
| R10 | 4 | KING PUCK | 4% | 20/1 | 15/1 | -1 | 8··· | 6/1610d |
| R10 | 2 | THREE THIRTEEN | 4% | 25/1 | 15/1 | -1 | 9··· | 26/487d |
Why reads left to right: rank on our power-figure blend, whether the pace shape helps (▲) or hurts (▼), the barn (B) and the morning (W). Green is positive, red negative, a dot means nothing to say. Model and Fair are ours; Board is the morning line.
Price your own ticket
The exotics builder, the sequence builder and the style ranker all run against this card, 10 races of it, at the real minimum and the real takeout. They live on one page so there is one of each to trust.
The rest of the card our read on every race: analysis, not a bet
R2Lean7Bellacose31%5/29/5
How it sets up
Go forward467
Pace helps25
Our top-rated horse in a $12,500 claimer. Three of them want the lead. The barn's angle in this exact spot is among the best in the field. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 3 points.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | BELLACOSE | 31% | 5/2 | 9/5 | 14/1633d |
| 2 | AH CA IRA | 18% | 9/2 | 3/1 | 40/5012d |
| 4 | SHORT SHIFT | 13% | 13/2 | 7/2 | 49/5236d |
| 5 | OPEN SOUL AUTISM | 11% | 8/1 | 10/1 | 53/5528d |
| 1 | CURLIN'S MAGIC | 10% | 9/1 | 8/1 | •1/2654d |
| 3 | MISS LAO | 9% | 10/1 | 8/1 | 9/337d |
| 6 | JACKIE THE JOKER | 7% | 12/1 | 6/1 | 23/3335d |
R3Chalk5Spoiler36%9/51/1
How it sets up
Alone on the lead6
The board and our number agree in a $12,500 claimer. One horse looks alone on the lead, which our pace adjustment credits. The barn's angle in this exact spot is among the best in the field.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | SPOILER | 36% | 9/5 | 1/1 | •1/1710d |
| 1 | INTERLOCK EMPIRE | 18% | 9/2 | 4/1 | 5/2331d |
| 6 | FEVER NIGHT | 13% | 13/2 | 5/1 | 5/369d |
| 7 | POLAR BEAR PLUNGE | 9% | 10/1 | 6/1 | 1/215d |
| 2 | SHIPSATIONAL | 9% | 10/1 | 8/1 | 7/85d |
| 3 | AMEDEUS MUSIC | 7% | 12/1 | 15/1 | 19/2437d |
| 4 | EXPENSIVE CUT | 7% | 12/1 | 10/1 | 29/2937d |
R4Chalk6Shoot The Nickel21%7/25/2
How it sets up
Pace helps168
The board and our number agree in a $16,000 optional claimer. Four horses want the front, so the early fractions should be honest. The barn's angle in this exact spot is among the best in the field.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | SHOOT THE NICKEL | 21% | 7/2 | 5/2 | 18/8742d |
| 1 | NORWICH | 20% | 4/1 | 3/1 | 8/7847d |
| 8 | NORMANDY COAST | 18% | 9/2 | 4/1 | 2/116d |
| 5 | TIZMARKUS | 15% | 11/2 | 4/1 | 6/1512d |
| 3 | KUNSHAN BRIDGE | 11% | 8/1 | 6/1 | 5/510d |
| 2 | PRINCIP | 7% | 12/1 | 8/1 | •1/1448d |
| 7 | TIMAEUS | 5% | 20/1 | 15/1 | 12/1835d |
| 4 | GRAYWING | 3% | 30/1 | 30/1 | — |
R5Lean10Mandy Steph19%4/17/2
How it sets up
Our top-rated horse in a maiden special weight. We make the top one 19% against the board's 17%. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 2 points.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | MANDY STEPH | 19% | 4/1 | 7/2 | 3/48d |
| 2 | BLUEGRASS PRINCESS | 15% | 11/2 | 4/1 | •1/766d |
| 6 | SELLONTHENEWS | 14% | 6/1 | 9/2 | 22/746d |
| 1 | ROYAL COUNTY DOWN | 12% | 7/1 | 5/1 | 4/617d |
| 9 | CELEBRATE | 11% | 8/1 | 6/1 | 8/117d |
| 3 | BITTERSWEET MEMORY | 8% | 11/1 | 8/1 | 3/285d |
| 8 | HARMONY MILL | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | 7/357d |
| 5 | AMELIA IN AIR | 5% | 20/1 | 12/1 | 9/456d |
| 7 | HARPOON | 5% | 20/1 | 20/1 | 23/578d |
| 4 | HUNTER CREEK | 4% | 25/1 | 15/1 | 1/25d |
R6Lean9Mcmoon18%9/24/1
How it sets up
Go forward7911
Pace helps38
Our top-rated horse in a maiden special weight. Three of them want the lead. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 2 points.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | MCMOON | 18% | 9/2 | 4/1 | 2/396d |
| 11 | HAMMERIN HENRY | 16% | 11/2 | 5/1 | 6/147d |
| 7 | FREEDOM CHARGE | 13% | 7/1 | 7/2 | •1/812d |
| 8 | FIVE GRAND | 13% | 7/1 | 6/1 | 4/336d |
| 10 | MAXIMILIAN | 10% | 9/1 | 6/1 | •1/87d |
| 4 | JUST YOU BABY | 7% | 12/1 | 10/1 | 4/66d |
| 2 | THEMISTOCLES | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | •1/156d |
| 5 | COMICAL MISCHIEF | 5% | 20/1 | 15/1 | •1/189d |
| 6 | MR RIGATONI | 5% | 20/1 | 15/1 | 12/369d |
| 3 | ED CHARLES | 4% | 25/1 | 15/1 | 6/68d |
| 1 | DOMINICGOFRISKEM | 4% | 25/1 | 20/1 | 3/411d |
R7Chalk4Mi Bago28%5/22/1
How it sets up
Go forward467
Pace helps589
The board and our number agree in a starter allowance. Three of them want the lead.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | MI BAGO | 28% | 5/2 | 2/1 | 46/5528d |
| 2 | SPIRIT OF ST LOUIS | 24% | 3/1 | 3/1 | •1/167d |
| 7 | SOUNDS LIKE A PLAN | 15% | 11/2 | 6/1 | 7/1516d |
| 8 | GEORGE BRIGGS | 13% | 7/1 | 7/2 | 7/487d |
| 5 | TONKA WARRIOR | 8% | 12/1 | 8/1 | 2/312d |
| 6 | ITSALLCOMINTOGETHA | 5% | 20/1 | 12/1 | 1/111d |
| 1 | TWO'S A CROWD | 3% | 30/1 | 15/1 | 1/327d |
| 3 | LEON BLUE | 2% | 50/1 | 20/1 | 2/37d |
| 9 | RUSSIAN REALM | 2% | 50/1 | 30/1 | •1/536d |
R9Chalk4Bam's Bliss Kiss20%4/13/1
How it sets up
The board and our number agree in a $25,000 optional claimer. We make the top one 20% against the board's 20%.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | BAM'S BLISS KISS | 20% | 4/1 | 3/1 | 7/206d |
| 9 | SWEET NOTE | 16% | 11/2 | 7/2 | 7/187d |
| 6 | CITY BLOCKS | 15% | 11/2 | 5/1 | 2/2631d |
| 2 | PROUD FOOT | 11% | 8/1 | 8/1 | 17/3914d |
| 8 | SASSY PRINCESS | 10% | 9/1 | 4/1 | 2/75d |
| 1 | MAJESTIC RETURN | 9% | 10/1 | 8/1 | •1/115d |
| 3 | CONFIRMED STAR | 8% | 11/1 | 12/1 | 1/28d |
| 7 | HEAVENLY LIGHT | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | 85/14127d |
| 5 | FUGITIVE STAR | 5% | 20/1 | 15/1 | 5/115d |
R10Lean1Illmatic35%9/57/5
How it sets up
Go forward36
Pace helps15
Our top-rated horse in an allowance. Five horses want the front, so the early fractions should be honest. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 3 points.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ILLMATIC | 35% | 9/5 | 7/5 | 2/59d |
| 8 | JOKER ON FIRE | 17% | 5/1 | 3/1 | 7/128d |
| 5 | RHYTON | 12% | 7/1 | 6/1 | 3/229d |
| 6 | EAST COAST GIRL | 9% | 10/1 | 10/1 | •1/159d |
| 3 | FIREBALLIN | 7% | 15/1 | 12/1 | •1/399d |
| 9 | VAN VOLLENHOVEN | 6% | 15/1 | 10/1 | •1/117d |
| 7 | STORMY BIRTHDAY | 5% | 20/1 | 12/1 | 31/1396d |
| 4 | KING PUCK | 4% | 20/1 | 15/1 | 6/1610d |
| 2 | THREE THIRTEEN | 4% | 25/1 | 15/1 | 26/487d |
Public record47–125flags, W–L-22.6uflat-$2-6.6%flat-bet ROI, n=172-32% to +21%95% range, read this oneevery call hash-stamped before post →
We lose most single flags. That’s expected. The edge is price: when we’re right, the board paid more than fair. Our 30% picks win about 30% (see the calibration curve), and every call is graded against the closing odds, wins and losses.
No set price. On the tote you’re paid the closing odds, so the edge isn’t a line you beat early. It’s the gap between our fair number and where the crowd lands. We grade each flag against the actual close.
Our last miss: SAR R8 Titan Ready, flagged at 8/5, didn’t win, and it is on the record like every call.
Model v0-heuristic-1.4 · cfg aab788cb · code 82d07f70 · takeout (SAR) win 16% / exacta 18.5% · card SHA-256 842f3091d513… · Scratch status checked at 12:35 PM ET. Late scratches void at scoring; the card is never edited.
Verifying this card
| OpenTimestamps status | not available |
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