Del Mar, Fri Aug 28, 2026
Today’s card runs on TwinSpires as Edge Card Plays. Edge Card is an independent publication and is not a TwinSpires product; the plays and the record are the same ones published here.
New here? How to read a flag · Model, Fair, Board and the pari-mutuel closing rule, explained once.
Five of the 8 are entitled to the early lead, so the opening quarter over five furlongs on turf in a $25,000 claimer should be contested rather than soft.
The model’s read ▾
It rates second on our own win number, 0.4 points behind the top, and with 5 of them wanting the front the early fractions should be honest.
5 of the 8 want the front over five furlongs on turf, and this one profiles to come from off it, so we pushed its number up for that (×1.1).
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | INVINCIBLE MOLLY | 21% | 4/1 | 4/1 | 52/13840d |
| 1 | EMPRESS MATILDA ◀ | 21% | 4/1 | 5/1 | 9/939d |
| 6 | TAM'S LITTLE ANGEL | 19% | 9/2 | 7/2 | •1/10611d |
| 8 | ELITE HEAT | 15% | 11/2 | 4/1 | 8/923d |
| 2 | FALABELLA | 8% | 12/1 | 6/1 | •1/276d |
| 4 | OVETA'S HOBBY | 7% | 12/1 | 10/1 | •1/414d |
| 3 | LITTLE TINKER ELLE | 7% | 15/1 | 6/1 | •1/1635d |
| 5 | MY KAT | 3% | 30/1 | 12/1 | 7/848d |
No one horse is entitled to the lead. Two have shown early speed, under the count that would rate the race contested.
The model’s read ▾
SAND BAGGER is one of the more likely winners we flag today, and the board still prices it like a longer shot. The gap is smaller in points than some, but it is on a horse we genuinely rate to win.
It tops our own win number, 14.8 points clear of the next one.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | SAND BAGGER ◀ | 31% | 2/1 | 5/2 | 2/1911d |
| 1 | BEE EYE GEE | 16% | 5/1 | 4/1 | 8/566d |
| 3 | KNOWHERE | 12% | 7/1 | 10/1 | 3/116d |
| 6 | NON DOMICILE | 11% | 8/1 | 8/1 | 12/265d |
| 7 | REDIAL | 8% | 11/1 | 5/1 | 11/1523d |
| 9 | PRINCE OF DEL MAR | 8% | 11/1 | 7/2 | 3/487d |
| 8 | LOVE THE PRESSURE | 6% | 15/1 | 15/1 | 6/86d |
| 5 | BAD TO THE BONES | 4% | 20/1 | 15/1 | 5/2014d |
| 2 | PRECISION | 2% | 50/1 | 20/1 | 2/3112d |
Four of the 6 are entitled to the early lead, so the opening quarter over six and a half furlongs on dirt in a $100,000 allowance optional claimer should be contested rather than soft.
The model’s read ▾
It tops our own win number, 6.4 points clear of the next one, and with 4 of them wanting the front the early fractions should be honest.
4 of the 6 want the front over six and a half furlongs on dirt, and this one profiles to come from off it, so we pushed its number up for that (×1.1).
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SPEEDY WILSON ◀ | 26% | 3/1 | 3/1 | 6/646d |
| 2 | MR. DISRESPECTFUL | 19% | 4/1 | 7/2 | •1/46d |
| 6 | SIMPLE SONG | 19% | 9/2 | 5/2 | 12/807d |
| 3 | SMOOTH CRUISEIN | 16% | 5/1 | 4/1 | •1/811d |
| 5 | THE LAST STRAW | 10% | 9/1 | 5/1 | 3/8011d |
| 4 | NESSO'S LASTHARRAH | 9% | 10/1 | 8/1 | •1/196d |
Nothing in here has a clear claim on the lead. A field this size means traffic is the risk in here, not the pace. Only one has shown genuine early speed, without enough company to rate the race contested.
The model’s read ▾
This is the widest gap on today’s card. When our number is that far clear of the board, the disagreement is the whole reason to be here.
It tops our own win number, 29.3 points clear of the next one.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | JUST WORK IT OUT ◀ | 42% | 7/5 | 8/5 | 9/596d |
| 10 | NYCE SHOT | 13% | 7/1 | 5/1 | •1/298d |
| 2 | MISS MO BROWN | 12% | 15/2 | 8/1 | 9/186d |
| 3 | BIG BLAST | 10% | 9/1 | 4/1 | •1/197d |
| 9 | DIVINE KISMET | 7% | 15/1 | 10/1 | 14/158d |
| 8 | MS GRAINGER DANGER | 5% | 20/1 | 8/1 | 10/1112d |
| 7 | LIHUE PRINCESS | 4% | 25/1 | 12/1 | 8/189d |
| 5 | STAY MY GIRL | 3% | 30/1 | 20/1 | 2/429d |
| 6 | ESTRELLA ESMERAL | 2% | 50/1 | 20/1 | 2/28d |
| 1 | KOOL IT | 1% | 50/1 | 20/1 | 18/217d |
- 2Sensational Dreamfirst start on dirt
4 of the 8 were claimed last time out
- 3Little Tinker Elleup from $16,000 to $25,000 off a win · first start on turf · bottom third of this field on turf breeding
- 4Oveta's Hobbyup from $10,000 to $22,500 off an 8th
- 5My Katup from $16,000 to $25,000 off a 7th
- 8Just Libertyfirst start on dirt · top third of this field on dirt breeding
- 2I Know Nothingblinkers on
3 of the 9 add blinkers
- 4Sand Baggerwent off at 9/5 last time and finished 4th · claimed last time out
- 3Knowheredrops from $50,000 to $25,000 off a 9th
- 6Non Domiciledrops from $50,000 to $25,000 off a win
- 7Redialclaimed last time out
- 9Prince Of Del Marfirst start in 9 months
- 5Imnotvanillaskyfirst start in 11 months · first-time Lasix
- 7Rousing Rhythmfirst start on dirt · bottom third of this field on dirt breeding
- 3Glory'z Clubhouseup from $16,000 to $50,000 off a 4th
- 6Running Ironblinkers on
- 5Make Me Moneywent off at 9/5 last time and finished 6th · first start on turf · bottom third of this field on turf breeding
- 3Vallendarfirst start on turf · top third of this field on turf breeding
- 1Speedy Wilsonwent off at 5/2 last time and finished 4th
7 of the 10 have never gone a mile or longer
6 of the 10 have never raced on turf
- 1Kool Itblinkers off
- 4Just Work It Outtop third of this field on turf breeding
- 5Stay My Girlbottom third of this field on turf breeding
- 6Estrella Esmeralblinkers on
- 8Ms Grainger Dangertop third of this field on turf breeding
Facts about the race, not predictions. A class move is shown with the finish it came off so you can judge it; we do not claim any of these wins, and only the flagged win bets above are graded on the record.
The whole card every runner, our number beside the board
| R | # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Edge | Why | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R16 furlongs dirtMaiden claiming $40,000Contested pace likely (3 early-speed types)pass | ||||||||
| R1 | 3 | SMOKIN HOT STUFF | 37% | 9/5 | 7/5 | +4 | 1▲·W | 5/11612d |
| R1 | 6 | SUGAR LOVIN | 19% | 9/2 | 5/1 | +5 | 2▲B· | •1/66d |
| R1 | 2 | SENSATIONAL DREAM | 18% | 9/2 | 3/1 | -2 | 4▲·· | 1/29d |
| R1 | 5 | DEBBY'S GAL | 16% | 5/1 | 4/1 | 0 | 3··W | 4/807d |
| R1 | 1 | ICONS ONLY | 10% | 9/1 | 7/2 | -8 | 5··W | 5/766d |
| R25 furlongs turfClaiming $25,000Contested pace likely (5 early-speed types)1 flag | ||||||||
| R2 | 7 | INVINCIBLE MOLLY | 21% | 4/1 | 4/1 | +5 | 2▲·· | 52/13840d |
| R2 | 1 | EMPRESS MATILDA | 21% | 4/1 | 5/1 | +7 | 1▲·· | 9/939d |
| R2 | 6 | TAM'S LITTLE ANGEL | 19% | 9/2 | 7/2 | +1 | 3··W | •1/10611d |
| R2 | 8 | ELITE HEAT | 15% | 11/2 | 4/1 | -1 | 4··· | 8/923d |
| R2 | 2 | FALABELLA | 8% | 12/1 | 6/1 | -4 | 6▼·W | •1/276d |
| R2 | 4 | OVETA'S HOBBY | 7% | 12/1 | 10/1 | 0 | 5··· | •1/414d |
| R2 | 3 | LITTLE TINKER ELLE | 7% | 15/1 | 6/1 | -5 | 7▼·· | •1/1635d |
| R2 | 5 | MY KAT | 3% | 30/1 | 12/1 | -3 | 8▼·W | 7/848d |
| R36 furlongs dirtMaiden optional claiming $65,000Even pacepass | ||||||||
| R3 | 7 | PRO PAYNE | 21% | 4/1 | 7/2 | +3 | 1··W | 4/568d |
| R3 | 3 | BLAME ASHLEY | 20% | 4/1 | 3/1 | 0 | ···W | 2/727d |
| R3 | 2 | I KNOW NOTHING | 18% | 9/2 | 4/1 | +3 | 2··· | 3/69d |
| R3 | 1 | GOLDEN CHISPA | 11% | 8/1 | 6/1 | 0 | 4·BW | 6/897d |
| R3 | 6 | FAST AFFAIR | 9% | 10/1 | 8/1 | +1 | 3··· | 20/338d |
| R3 | 5 | AWSOME AMY | 9% | 10/1 | 8/1 | 0 | ···· | 4/75d |
| R3 | 4 | MAGIC WORLD | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | 0 | ···· | 7/147d |
| R3 | 8 | JUST LIBERTY | 6% | 15/1 | 6/1 | -6 | 5··· | 3/88d |
| R41 mile turfClaiming $25,000, non-winners of two lifetimeEven pace1 flag | ||||||||
| R4 | 4 | SAND BAGGER | 31% | 2/1 | 5/2 | +8 | 1··· | 2/1911d |
| R4 | 1 | BEE EYE GEE | 16% | 5/1 | 4/1 | 0 | 2··· | 8/566d |
| R4 | 3 | KNOWHERE | 12% | 7/1 | 10/1 | +5 | 3··· | 3/116d |
| R4 | 6 | NON DOMICILE | 11% | 8/1 | 8/1 | +2 | 4··· | 12/265d |
| R4 | 7 | REDIAL | 8% | 11/1 | 5/1 | -5 | 6··· | 11/1523d |
| R4 | 9 | PRINCE OF DEL MAR | 8% | 11/1 | 7/2 | -10 | 8·BW | 3/487d |
| R4 | 8 | LOVE THE PRESSURE | 6% | 15/1 | 15/1 | +1 | 5··· | 6/86d |
| R4 | 5 | BAD TO THE BONES | 4% | 20/1 | 15/1 | -1 | 7·B· | 5/2014d |
| R4 | 2 | PRECISION | 2% | 50/1 | 20/1 | -1 | 9··W | 2/3112d |
| R55 1/2 furlongs dirtMaiden claiming $50,000Contested pace likely (3 early-speed types)pass | ||||||||
| R5 | 1 | I'M NO SWIFTY | 19% | 9/2 | 3/1 | -1 | 1▼·· | 9/157d |
| R5 | 6 | RUNNING IRON | 18% | 9/2 | 6/1 | +6 | 3▲·· | 9/226d |
| R5 | 4 | MUSTANG KNICKY | 15% | 6/1 | 6/1 | +3 | 2▼·· | 10/407d |
| R5 | 8 | LET IT BEGIN | 10% | 9/1 | 5/1 | -3 | 4▼·W | •1/7611d |
| R5 | 7 | ROUSING RHYTHM | 10% | 9/1 | 8/1 | +1 | 5·BW | •1/176d |
| R5 | 3 | GLORY'Z CLUBHOUSE | 9% | 10/1 | 7/2 | -9 | 8▲B· | 18/1166d |
| R5 | 2 | LOW LA BUNNY | 8% | 11/1 | 12/1 | +2 | 6▲·· | 11/126d |
| R5 | 9 | DIVA DELMAR | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | 0 | ···· | 17/256d |
| R5 | 5 | IMNOTVANILLASKY | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | 0 | 7··· | 1/16d |
| R65 furlongs turfMaiden special weightLone speedpass | ||||||||
| R6 | 8 | DELUGE | 20% | 4/1 | 3/1 | +1 | ··BW | •1/807d |
| R6 | 1 | GOLDEN BEE | 17% | 5/1 | 7/2 | 0 | 1··W | 9/1017d |
| R6 | 9 | ON EDGE | 13% | 13/2 | 5/1 | 0 | ··B· | 6/486d |
| R6 | 2 | STEALTH DRONE | 13% | 7/1 | 5/1 | -1 | ···W | 2/327d |
| R6 | 5 | MAKE ME MONEY | 11% | 8/1 | 8/1 | +3 | 2▲·· | 5/3112d |
| R6 | 6 | STORMY SUNSET | 11% | 8/1 | 6/1 | 0 | ···W | •1/277d |
| R6 | 4 | VINO VINO VINO | 8% | 11/1 | 8/1 | 0 | ···· | 5/4315d |
| R6 | 7 | HIGH STREET | 4% | 25/1 | 20/1 | 0 | ···· | 1/111d |
| R6 | 3 | VALLENDAR | 2% | 50/1 | 20/1 | -2 | 3·B· | 10/4211d |
| R76 1/2 furlongs dirtOptional claiming $100,000Contested pace likely (4 early-speed types)1 flag | ||||||||
| R7 | 1 | SPEEDY WILSON | 26% | 3/1 | 3/1 | +6 | 1▲·W | 6/646d |
| R7 | 2 | MR. DISRESPECTFUL | 19% | 4/1 | 7/2 | +2 | 2▲·· | •1/46d |
| R7 | 6 | SIMPLE SONG | 19% | 9/2 | 5/2 | -4 | 4▲·· | 12/807d |
| R7 | 3 | SMOOTH CRUISEIN | 16% | 5/1 | 4/1 | 0 | 3··· | •1/811d |
| R7 | 5 | THE LAST STRAW | 10% | 9/1 | 5/1 | -3 | 6··W | 3/8011d |
| R7 | 4 | NESSO'S LASTHARRAH | 9% | 10/1 | 8/1 | 0 | 5··W | •1/196d |
| R81 mile turfMaiden special weightEven pace1 flag | ||||||||
| R8 | 4 | JUST WORK IT OUT | 42% | 7/5 | 8/5 | +12 | 1·B· | 9/596d |
| R8 | 10 | NYCE SHOT | 13% | 7/1 | 5/1 | 0 | ···W | •1/298d |
| R8 | 2 | MISS MO BROWN | 12% | 15/2 | 8/1 | +3 | 2·B· | 9/186d |
| R8 | 3 | BIG BLAST | 10% | 9/1 | 4/1 | -5 | 3··W | •1/197d |
| R8 | 9 | DIVINE KISMET | 7% | 15/1 | 10/1 | 0 | ···· | 14/158d |
| R8 | 8 | MS GRAINGER DANGER | 5% | 20/1 | 8/1 | -3 | 4··· | 10/1112d |
| R8 | 7 | LIHUE PRINCESS | 4% | 25/1 | 12/1 | -2 | 6··· | 8/189d |
| R8 | 5 | STAY MY GIRL | 3% | 30/1 | 20/1 | 0 | 5··W | 2/429d |
| R8 | 6 | ESTRELLA ESMERAL | 2% | 50/1 | 20/1 | -1 | 7·B· | 2/28d |
| R8 | 1 | KOOL IT | 1% | 50/1 | 20/1 | -2 | 8··· | 18/217d |
Why reads left to right: rank on our power-figure blend, whether the pace shape helps (▲) or hurts (▼), the barn (B) and the morning (W). Green is positive, red negative, a dot means nothing to say. Model and Fair are ours; Board is the morning line.
Price your own ticket
The exotics builder, the sequence builder and the style ranker all run against this card, 8 races of it, at the real minimum and the real takeout. They live on one page so there is one of each to trust.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | SMOKIN HOT STUFF | 37% | 9/5 | 7/5 | 5/11612d |
| 6 | SUGAR LOVIN | 19% | 9/2 | 5/1 | •1/66d |
| 2 | SENSATIONAL DREAM | 18% | 9/2 | 3/1 | 1/29d |
| 5 | DEBBY'S GAL | 16% | 5/1 | 4/1 | 4/807d |
| 1 | ICONS ONLY | 10% | 9/1 | 7/2 | 5/766d |
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | PRO PAYNE | 21% | 4/1 | 7/2 | 4/568d |
| 3 | BLAME ASHLEY | 20% | 4/1 | 3/1 | 2/727d |
| 2 | I KNOW NOTHING | 18% | 9/2 | 4/1 | 3/69d |
| 1 | GOLDEN CHISPA | 11% | 8/1 | 6/1 | 6/897d |
| 6 | FAST AFFAIR | 9% | 10/1 | 8/1 | 20/338d |
| 5 | AWSOME AMY | 9% | 10/1 | 8/1 | 4/75d |
| 4 | MAGIC WORLD | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | 7/147d |
| 8 | JUST LIBERTY | 6% | 15/1 | 6/1 | 3/88d |
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | I'M NO SWIFTY | 19% | 9/2 | 3/1 | 9/157d |
| 6 | RUNNING IRON | 18% | 9/2 | 6/1 | 9/226d |
| 4 | MUSTANG KNICKY | 15% | 6/1 | 6/1 | 10/407d |
| 8 | LET IT BEGIN | 10% | 9/1 | 5/1 | •1/7611d |
| 7 | ROUSING RHYTHM | 10% | 9/1 | 8/1 | •1/176d |
| 3 | GLORY'Z CLUBHOUSE | 9% | 10/1 | 7/2 | 18/1166d |
| 2 | LOW LA BUNNY | 8% | 11/1 | 12/1 | 11/126d |
| 9 | DIVA DELMAR | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | 17/256d |
| 5 | IMNOTVANILLASKY | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 | 1/16d |
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board | Works |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | DELUGE | 20% | 4/1 | 3/1 | •1/807d |
| 1 | GOLDEN BEE | 17% | 5/1 | 7/2 | 9/1017d |
| 9 | ON EDGE | 13% | 13/2 | 5/1 | 6/486d |
| 2 | STEALTH DRONE | 13% | 7/1 | 5/1 | 2/327d |
| 5 | MAKE ME MONEY | 11% | 8/1 | 8/1 | 5/3112d |
| 6 | STORMY SUNSET | 11% | 8/1 | 6/1 | •1/277d |
| 4 | VINO VINO VINO | 8% | 11/1 | 8/1 | 5/4315d |
| 7 | HIGH STREET | 4% | 25/1 | 20/1 | 1/111d |
| 3 | VALLENDAR | 2% | 50/1 | 20/1 | 10/4211d |
We lose most single flags. That’s expected. The edge is price: when we’re right, the board paid more than fair. Our 30% picks win about 30% (see the calibration curve), and every call is graded against the closing odds, wins and losses.
No set price. On the tote you’re paid the closing odds, so the edge isn’t a line you beat early. It’s the gap between our fair number and where the crowd lands. We grade each flag against the actual close.
Our last miss: SAR R8 Titan Ready, flagged at 8/5, didn’t win, and it is on the record like every call.
Model v0-heuristic-1.4 · cfg aab788cb · code 82d07f70 · takeout (DMR) win 15.43% / exacta 22.68% · card SHA-256 e0bdbe1af7a7… · Scratch status has not yet been confirmed. Late scratches void at scoring; the card is never edited.
Verifying this card
| OpenTimestamps status | not available |
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