How the track is playing
Every finished race at Saratoga and Del Mar from 2026-07-03 to 2026-08-15: 46 cards, read from the result charts. Nothing here is a raw win rate. Each figure is a ratio to what should have happened, and anything that cannot be told apart from that is drawn as unreadable rather than dressed up as a read.
What the board is missing
These are the only splits where the gap to the closing odds is bigger than the uncertainty around it.
- In DMR dirt sprint, horses that led at the first call have won 1.56 times what the closing board expected of them (18 from 55; 1.04–2.18 after correcting for the ? cells in this table).
- In DMR dirt sprint, horses that closed at the first call have won only 0.23 times what the closing board expected (3 from 158; 0.08–0.66 after correcting for the ? cells in this table).
- In SAR dirt route, horses that led at the first call have won 1.77 times what the closing board expected of them (19 from 70; 1.18–2.51 after correcting for the ? cells in this table).
- In SAR dirt sprint, horses that led at the first call have won 2.43 times what the closing board expected of them (25 from 65; 1.75–3.20 after correcting for the ? cells in this table).
- In SAR dirt sprint, horses that closed at the first call have won only 0.54 times what the closing board expected (9 from 170; 0.29–0.99 after correcting for the ? cells in this table).
- In SAR turf route, horses that led at the first call have won 1.79 times what the closing board expected of them (19 from 79; 1.19–2.58 after correcting for the ? cells in this table).
- In SAR turf sprint, horses that closed at the first call have won 1.71 times what the closing board expected of them (19 from 130; 1.12–2.53 after correcting for the ? cells in this table).
| Segment | Meet | Last 14 days | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DMR dirt route | 0.99x | 0.72x (9 starts) | steady |
| DMR dirt sprint | 2.55x | 2.96x (29 starts) | getting quicker |
| DMR turf route | 1.67x | 0.85x (19 starts) | coming back to the field |
| DMR turf sprint | 2.06x | 2.32x (14 starts) | steady |
| SAR dirt route | 1.86x | 1.40x (26 starts) | coming back to the field |
| SAR dirt sprint | 2.84x | 3.63x (25 starts) | getting quicker |
| SAR turf route | 1.92x | 1.72x (31 starts) | steady |
| SAR turf sprint | 1.03x | 1.01x (15 starts) | steady |
| DMR dirt route | 10.66x23 starts21.32x23 starts30.66x23 starts40.99x23 starts50.33x23 starts61.64x20 starts71.03x17 starts81.21x15 starts92.14x13 starts10—3 starts11—1 starts |
|---|---|
| DMR dirt sprint | 11.13x55 starts20.71x55 starts30.99x55 starts40.99x55 starts51.41x55 starts60.93x52 starts70.81x43 starts81.57x35 starts90.41x24 starts100.81x13 starts11—7 starts12—1 starts |
| DMR turf route | 11.25x41 starts21.04x41 starts31.04x41 starts41.46x41 starts51.25x41 starts61.46x41 starts70.27x34 starts80.65x30 starts90.78x26 starts100.00x21 starts11—9 starts12—1 starts |
| DMR turf sprint | 11.47x27 starts20.88x27 starts31.18x27 starts41.47x27 starts51.18x27 starts60.67x25 starts70.35x24 starts80.89x20 starts90.88x11 starts10—5 starts11—3 starts12—1 starts |
| SAR dirt route | 11.27x70 starts21.08x70 starts31.96x70 starts40.88x70 starts50.70x69 starts60.58x62 starts70.47x49 starts80.39x22 starts9—8 starts10—4 starts11—3 starts12—2 starts |
| SAR dirt sprint | 11.71x65 starts21.26x64 starts30.92x64 starts41.14x65 starts50.57x64 starts60.63x60 starts70.90x46 starts81.46x31 starts90.00x18 starts100.00x13 starts11—2 starts12—2 starts |
| SAR turf route | 11.32x79 starts21.42x79 starts30.91x79 starts41.01x79 starts51.14x78 starts61.06x77 starts70.69x64 starts80.86x54 starts90.54x37 starts100.44x24 starts110.00x11 starts12—5 starts |
| SAR turf sprint | 11.55x44 starts20.86x44 starts30.34x44 starts41.21x44 starts50.75x42 starts60.98x36 starts71.33x34 starts80.33x29 starts92.30x22 starts100.72x15 starts11—7 starts12—5 starts |
How to read this
The bar runs from the fair share to what actually happened. In a field of nine, a neutral slot wins one race in nine, so the expectation is the sum of those shares over the races it contested. The whisker is the 95% interval; where it crosses the fair-share line the bar is shaded, because the split is consistent with nothing happening. The diamond is the same result measured against the closing tote odds instead: that is the part the betting public did not already price.
The important caveat. Where a horse sat at the first call is an outcome, not a fact you have before the race. A horse that led is revealed to have had the speed and the trip, so some of the front-end advantage is the value of having led rather than a property of the surface. Read this as how much to credit a horse that projects to lead, not as a bet on front-runners. We use it that way ourselves.
Counts are starts, not races. Figures are computed by us from result charts and the public tote; no vendor rating is reproduced.