Saratoga & Del Mar · 2026 Meets · Model v0-heuristic-1.4 the anti-tout
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Transparent racing cards · Locked before post · Every pick graded

Del Mar, Thu Aug 27, 2026

2 value plays today · 6 races we're passing
StatusCompleted · races run
First post5:00 PM ET
Scratch checkNot yet confirmed
Archived card · races already run

These plays were published and locked before first post on Thu Aug 27, 2026. They are kept exactly as published, wins and losses alike, and are no longer actionable. Prices shown were the qualifying prices at publication.

Every selection we have ever published is graded on the record. The methodology is on the methodology page.

Edge of the Day
4JET BLACK JEWEL
Race 5 · 1 1/16 miles turf
32%model2/1fair3/1boardWINpaid at the close
Our biggest edge on the card today (+12 pts over the board), the price may move either way into post; you’re paid the close. Chosen by rule: the flag with the most value, graded like any other.
Today at Del MarPatchy Fog then Mostly Sunny, 85°F, wind 0 to 10 mph · rain 2%, no off-track flagNWS forecast
Flags 2 of 8 races
Today’s plays2 flags
RaceHorseModelBoardEdge
R17Silkie Sevei30%3/1+10 ptsR54Jet Black Jewel32%3/1+12 pts
Price may move All 2 flags today. A mid board price, it can hold or shorten into post. You are paid the closing price either way, so bet the horse and take the number you get.
Race 1 · 1 1/16 miles · turf · Maiden claiming $62,500FlagShare
7SILKIE SEVEI
Model
Fair
Board
30%
5/2
3/1
our win %
break-even
the morning line
▸ WIN BET · paid at the close
shorterlonger, pays more5/2 break-even3/1 board
Price may move
Ranks #1 in our power figure blend; closer in a contested-pace setup.
Data · Brisnet
How it sets up
Contested3 of 8 want the lead
Go forward356
Pace helps4

Three of the 8 are entitled to the early lead, so the early fractions over a mile and a sixteenth on turf in a $62,500 maiden claimer should be contested rather than soft.

The model’s read ▾

SILKIE SEVEI is one of the more likely winners we flag today, and the board still prices it like a longer shot. The gap is smaller in points than some, but it is on a horse we genuinely rate to win.

It tops our own win number, 11.2 points clear of the next one, and with 3 of them wanting the front the early fractions should be honest.

3 of the 8 want the front over a mile and a sixteenth on turf, so the early fractions should be honest.

Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoardWorks
7SILKIE SEVEI 30%5/23/16/196d
5JASMINE19%9/25/21/826d
6MOLLY E12%15/28/11/106d
8AUTHENTIC GRACE10%9/16/11/16d
4ALYN'S GIRL9%10/18/13/46d
2CAVES9%10/15/11/176d
1KIZAZI6%15/112/18/911d
3RONILLA4%20/18/11/38d
Race 5 · 1 1/16 miles · turf · Maiden claiming $62,500FlagShare
4JET BLACK JEWEL
Model
Fair
Board
32%
2/1
3/1
our win %
break-even
the morning line
▸ WIN BET · paid at the close
shorterlonger, pays more2/1 break-even3/1 board
Price may move
Ranks #1 in our power figure blend; closer in a contested-pace setup.
Data · Brisnet
How it sets up
Contested3 of 8 want the lead
Go forward2
Pace helps134

The early fractions over a mile and a sixteenth on turf in a $62,500 maiden claimer should be contested rather than soft, with three of the 8 entitled to the early lead.

The model’s read ▾

This is the widest gap on today’s card. When our number is that far clear of the board, the disagreement is the whole reason to be here.

It tops our own win number, 15.3 points clear of the next one, and with 3 of them wanting the front the early fractions should be honest.

3 of the 8 want the front over a mile and a sixteenth on turf, and this one profiles to come from off it, so we pushed its number up for that (×1.1).

Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoardWorks
4JET BLACK JEWEL 32%2/13/11/177d
3ASTRONOMICALLY16%5/14/13/75d
5GOLDEN HOPE13%13/27/215/11648d
1STORM LADY13%7/16/12/47d
2VELVET REIGN11%8/14/11/387d
7CUBAN FLAME8%11/18/13/510d
8SPRINGLINE4%25/112/111/13813d
6SUNNY CREED3%30/120/15/3011d
What to know about each race today
R11 1/16 miles turfMaiden claiming $62,500
  • 3Ronillafirst start on turf · first start at a mile or longer · new barn since the last start, now with Patrick Gallagher
R21 mile dirtMaiden special weight

3 of the 5 have never gone a mile or longer

  • 5Ms Liubottom third of this field on breeding for the trip · blinkers on
  • 1Lunar Velocitytop third of this field on breeding for the trip
R35 furlongs turfMaiden special weight

3 of the 9 have never raced on turf

  • 7Nicholsbottom third of this field on turf breeding
  • 8You Want Somebottom third of this field on turf breeding
R46 1/2 furlongs dirtClaiming $50,000
  • 1L Rankinfirst start in 9 months · first-time Lasix
  • 3Sendit Moup from $16,000 to $50,000 off a win · claimed last time out
  • 7Opus Unodrops from $125,000 to $50,000 off a 4th · first start in 8 months
  • 2Wall Streetclaimed last time out
  • 6Sammy Davisblinkers on
R51 1/16 miles turfMaiden claiming $62,500
  • 7Cuban Flamefirst start on turf · first start at a mile or longer · top third of this field on turf breeding · new barn since the last start, now with Leonard Powell · first-time Lasix
  • 3Astronomicallyclaimed last time out
  • 6Sunny Creedblinkers on
  • 8Springlineup from $20,000 to $50,000 off a second
R66 furlongs dirtClaiming $12,500

4 of the 9 were claimed last time out

  • 3Kahuna Magicup from $6,250 to $10,500 off a 7th · blinkers on
  • 8Swaggishup from $6,250 to $12,500 off a third
R71 1/16 miles turfOptional claiming $50,000
  • 4Hello Kid O Kid Onew barn since the last start, now with Mike Puype
  • 7Cat The Confidantewent off at 2/1 last time and finished 5th
R81 mile dirtClaiming $16,000, non-winners of three lifetime

3 of the 10 were claimed last time out

Facts about the race, not predictions. A class move is shown with the finish it came off so you can judge it; we do not claim any of these wins, and only the flagged win bets above are graded on the record.

The whole card every runner, our number beside the board
Every runner on the card: our win probability and fair odds beside the morning line, with the edge between them. Sortable by any column.
R#HorseModelFairBoardEdgeWhyWorks
R11 1/16 miles turfMaiden claiming $62,500Contested pace likely (3 early-speed types)1 flag
R17SILKIE SEVEI30%5/23/1+101···6/196d
R15JASMINE19%9/25/2-42·W1/826d
R16MOLLY E12%15/28/1+33·W1/106d
R18AUTHENTIC GRACE10%9/16/1-14·B·1/16d
R14ALYN'S GIRL9%10/18/105B·3/46d
R12CAVES9%10/15/1-46··W1/176d
R11KIZAZI6%15/112/107·B·8/911d
R13RONILLA4%20/18/1-58··1/38d
R21 mile dirtMaiden special weightEven pacepass
R22SUDDEN IMPACT34%2/17/50···W2/1136d
R21LUNAR VELOCITY20%4/14/1+41···2/1210d
R23LUXOR MAGIC18%9/27/202··W23/2811d
R24DANIELLE14%6/16/1+33···8/286d
R25MS LIU14%6/13/1-64··W1/256d
R35 furlongs turfMaiden special weightEven pacepass
R36REPO MAN20%4/13/10···W1/457d
R35SAN MORITZ19%9/27/2+1··BW4/625d
R32HOAXER17%5/14/1+1··BW1/4011d
R38YOU WANT SOME15%11/26/1+41··W1/159d
R33SIR ROCKATAN9%10/18/10····14/956d
R34MOVINGWITHPURPOSE9%10/18/10···W1/275d
R31KING ANUNOBY9%10/18/10····1/97d
R37NICHOLS2%50/120/1-22···11/786d
R39JACK EM UP2%50/120/1-23·B·2/118d
R46 1/2 furlongs dirtClaiming $50,000Contested pace likely (4 early-speed types)pass
R45LIAM SMITH28%5/28/5-31··19/896d
R43SENDIT MO16%5/14/102·W7/1164d
R46SAMMY DAVIS15%6/15/1+13·W3/645d
R42WALL STREET12%7/15/1-15·W1/3718d
R44FIONELLO10%9/112/1+44···14/6013d
R47OPUS UNO10%9/16/1-26··7/476d
R41L RANKIN9%10/18/107··1/46d
R51 1/16 miles turfMaiden claiming $62,500Contested pace likely (3 early-speed types)1 flag
R54JET BLACK JEWEL32%2/13/1+121·W1/177d
R53ASTRONOMICALLY16%5/14/102B·3/75d
R55GOLDEN HOPE13%13/27/2-54···15/11648d
R51STORM LADY13%7/16/1+13B·2/47d
R52VELVET REIGN11%8/14/1-55·W1/387d
R57CUBAN FLAME8%11/18/1-1····3/510d
R58SPRINGLINE4%25/112/1-27·BW11/13813d
R56SUNNY CREED3%30/120/1-16···5/3011d
R66 furlongs dirtClaiming $12,500Lone speedpass
R61THE BIG CHEESEOLA17%5/15/1+41·W1/215d
R66GYPSY TEARS17%5/13/1-32··W33/3850d
R62YA'LL COME14%6/17/2-33···13/449d
R67GEEZER12%7/15/1-14··W8/10511d
R65CHECK'S ON THE WAY9%10/18/106···7/187d
R68SWAGGISH8%11/112/1+25···1/29d
R69NO MORE DING DONGS8%12/16/1-49···7/106d
R64NOVINOPHOBIA8%12/115/1+37··W4/511d
R63KAHUNA MAGIC7%12/115/1+28·B·8/3111d
R71 1/16 miles turfOptional claiming $50,000Even pacepass
R77CAT THE CONFIDANTE18%9/24/1+21·BW4/455d
R78LANILLA17%9/27/202···6/284d
R79REHEARSAL12%15/25/1-13···7/85d
R71WINIKA11%8/15/1-25·BW7/1065d
R74HELLO KID O KID O9%11/115/1+44··W21/257d
R75SPECIALTY8%12/112/1+16·B·1/712d
R710SHINING RIVER7%12/18/1-18···10/457d
R73LADY MARYANN7%15/112/1+17···72/10612d
R72HEAVENLY BELLE6%15/18/1-310···23/806d
R76INTERPLAY5%20/112/1-19·BW1/337d
R81 mile dirtClaiming $16,000, non-winners of three lifetimeContested pace likely (6 early-speed types)pass
R86MIO BAMBINO18%9/27/201··5/87d
R87SOUTHERN MELODEE14%6/14/1-22B·3/1211d
R85STAY FOR THE BOOM12%7/18/1+34·W26/266d
R82STAGGER LEE11%15/28/1+33···20/267d
R88COURT OF APPEAL11%8/16/1-16·W2/356d
R89RHYTHEM ON STAGE9%10/18/105··W4/806d
R83BOWTIE BOYS7%12/16/1-48·W2/777d
R84MILLBO BAGGINS6%15/112/107·B·27/8332d
R810TIGGRRR WHITWORTH6%15/110/1-19···5/137d
R81TEE N OFF4%20/120/1+110··W21/2215d

Why reads left to right: rank on our power-figure blend, whether the pace shape helps (▲) or hurts (▼), the barn (B) and the morning (W). Green is positive, red negative, a dot means nothing to say. Model and Fair are ours; Board is the morning line.

Price your own ticket

The exotics builder, the sequence builder and the style ranker all run against this card, 8 races of it, at the real minimum and the real takeout. They live on one page so there is one of each to trust.

Open the builders →

The rest of the card our read on every race: analysis, not a bet
R2Chalk2Sudden Impact34%2/17/5
How it sets up
dirtEven pace5 going
The board and our number agree in a maiden special weight. A short field of five.
Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoardWorks
2SUDDEN IMPACT34%2/17/52/1136d
1LUNAR VELOCITY20%4/14/12/1210d
3LUXOR MAGIC18%9/27/223/2811d
4DANIELLE14%6/16/18/286d
5MS LIU14%6/13/11/256d
R3Scramble6Repo Man20%4/13/1
How it sets up
turfEven pace9 going
An open heat. Nothing separates the top two by more than 1.0 point. We make the top one 20% against the board's 20%.
Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoardWorks
6REPO MAN20%4/13/11/457d
5SAN MORITZ19%9/27/24/625d
2HOAXER17%5/14/11/4011d
8YOU WANT SOME15%11/26/11/159d
3SIR ROCKATAN9%10/18/114/956d
4MOVINGWITHPURPOSE9%10/18/11/275d
1KING ANUNOBY9%10/18/11/97d
7NICHOLS2%50/120/111/786d
9JACK EM UP2%50/120/12/118d
R4Chalk5Liam Smith28%5/28/5
How it sets up
dirtContested4 of 7 want the lead
Go forward23567
Pace helps1
The board and our number agree in a $50,000 claimer. Four horses want the front, so the early fractions should be honest.
Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoardWorks
5LIAM SMITH28%5/28/519/896d
3SENDIT MO16%5/14/17/1164d
6SAMMY DAVIS15%6/15/13/645d
2WALL STREET12%7/15/11/3718d
4FIONELLO10%9/112/114/6013d
7OPUS UNO10%9/16/17/476d
1L RANKIN9%10/18/11/46d
R6Lean1The Big Cheeseola17%5/15/1
How it sets up
dirtLone speedone gets loose on the lead, 9 going
Alone on the lead1
Our top-rated horse in a $12,500 claimer. One horse looks alone on the lead, which our pace adjustment credits. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 4 points.
Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoardWorks
1THE BIG CHEESEOLA17%5/15/11/215d
6GYPSY TEARS17%5/13/133/3850d
2YA'LL COME14%6/17/213/449d
7GEEZER12%7/15/18/10511d
5CHECK'S ON THE WAY9%10/18/17/187d
8SWAGGISH8%11/112/11/29d
9NO MORE DING DONGS8%12/16/17/106d
4NOVINOPHOBIA8%12/115/14/511d
3KAHUNA MAGIC7%12/115/18/3111d
R7Lean7Cat The Confidante18%9/24/1
How it sets up
turfEven pace10 going
Our top-rated horse in a $50,000 optional claimer. We make the top one 18% against the board's 16%. The barn's angle in this exact spot is among the best in the field. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 2 points.
Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoardWorks
7CAT THE CONFIDANTE18%9/24/14/455d
8LANILLA17%9/27/26/284d
9REHEARSAL12%15/25/17/85d
1WINIKA11%8/15/17/1065d
4HELLO KID O KID O9%11/115/121/257d
5SPECIALTY8%12/112/11/712d
10SHINING RIVER7%12/18/110/457d
3LADY MARYANN7%15/112/172/10612d
2HEAVENLY BELLE6%15/18/123/806d
6INTERPLAY5%20/112/11/337d
R8Scramble6Mio Bambino18%9/27/2
How it sets up
dirtContested6 of 10 want the lead
Go forward37
Pace helps568
A full field of ten. Nothing separates the top two by more than 3.9 points. Six horses want the front, so the early fractions should be honest.
Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoardWorks
6MIO BAMBINO18%9/27/25/87d
7SOUTHERN MELODEE14%6/14/13/1211d
5STAY FOR THE BOOM12%7/18/126/266d
2STAGGER LEE11%15/28/120/267d
8COURT OF APPEAL11%8/16/12/356d
9RHYTHEM ON STAGE9%10/18/14/806d
3BOWTIE BOYS7%12/16/12/777d
4MILLBO BAGGINS6%15/112/127/8332d
10TIGGRRR WHITWORTH6%15/110/15/137d
1TEE N OFF4%20/120/121/2215d

Model v0-heuristic-1.4 · cfg aab788cb · code 76ca96f3 · takeout (DMR) win 15.43% / exacta 22.68% · card SHA-256 432d7a35925f… · Scratch status has not yet been confirmed. Late scratches void at scoring; the card is never edited.

Edge Card runs a proprietary pre-race probability process: market expectations combined with licensed past-performance, pace, field-composition and connections information, evaluated within each race. Exact implementation details are not published. Structured analysis, not a proven edge; tracked publicly either way. How to read this card · the method in full · every call graded

Verifying this card

Downloadable artifact hash432d7a35925f557017e69a9fe0233c0ccef8caf3d1e1cf27563bff266f0151fe
OpenTimestamps statusOpenTimestamps calendar commitment; Bitcoin confirmation pending
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