Saratoga — Fri Jul 17, 2026
How this card is made & how to verify it
Edge Card v0 is a transparent heuristic, not a trained model: Prime-Power softmax blended 50/50 with the de-vigged morning line, plus a published rules-based pace adjustment. Constants on the methodology page. Structured analysis, not proven edge; tracked publicly either way.
It reads Brisnet figures and pace only — not trainer, jockey, trip, or track bias yet; that arrives with the trained v1 model. Fair odds are 1 ÷ our win probability.
New here? How to read a flag
- Model
- Our estimated win chance for the horse.
- Fair
- The odds that chance implies — the price where a bet breaks even.
- Board
- The morning line, the track's early guess at the odds.
- Play at X or better
- Only bet if you can get that price or longer. The edge is in the price.
- Pass
- Most races. Our number agrees with the board, so there's nothing to bet.
The model’s read ▾
We make BEIJING a 22% chance in the 5 1/2 furlongs turf; the line implies about 16%, and that 6-point gap over the board is the flag.
Our power-rating blend makes it the best of this field — which is why the board’s price looks a step generous.
To play it: take 4/1 or better, and check it at the window — on the tote you get the closing price no matter when you bet, so if it’s shorter than that by the gate, the value is gone and it’s a pass.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | RED SQUARE | 27% | 5/2 | 8/5 |
| 3 | BEIJING ◀ | 22% | 7/2 | 4/1 |
| 6 | BLAZING TIGER | 16% | 11/2 | 9/2 |
| 5 | HE'S MY KIND | 16% | 11/2 | 3/1 |
| 7 | FRENCHQUARTER NOTE | 10% | 9/1 | 6/1 |
| 1 | SHIRL'S SOUL TOWN | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 |
| 4 | ONEPAC | 4% | 25/1 | 20/1 |
The model’s read ▾
We make BOSTON'S PHINEST a 16% chance in the 5 1/2 furlongs turf; the line implies about 7%, and that 9-point gap over the board is the flag.
It tops our power blend for the race; on the numbers it’s the most likely winner, whatever the odds say.
The race sets up with contested early pace (6 speed types), a shape that tends to favor closers.
To play it: take 6/1 or better, and check it at the window — on the tote you get the closing price no matter when you bet, so if it’s shorter than that by the gate, the value is gone and it’s a pass.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BOSTON'S PHINEST ◀ | 16% | 5/1 | 5/1 |
| 9 | PARTY IN THE ARMY | 14% | 13/2 | 5/2 |
| 10 | ANYWAY | 11% | 8/1 | 3/1 |
| 5 | TWISTED FILIGREE | 9% | 10/1 | 2/1 |
| 6 | VACATION DANCE | 9% | 10/1 | 5/2 |
| 13 | NEW YORK SCRAPPY | 9% | 10/1 | 4/1 |
| 7 | FUNNY FACTOR | 8% | 11/1 | 6/1 |
| 8 | COURTLY BANKER | 6% | 15/1 | 5/1 |
| 2 | PROJECTABILITY | 6% | 15/1 | 8/1 |
| 11 | JACKSON HEIGHTS | 3% | 30/1 | 10/1 |
| 14 | BEARY FUNNY | 3% | 30/1 | 12/1 |
| 12 | KID BILLY | 3% | 30/1 | 8/1 |
| 4 | DISARMED | 2% | 50/1 | 15/1 |
| 3 | GRAYWING | 1% | 99/1 | 50/1 |
The model’s read ▾
This is the widest gap on today’s card. We make ICE CHOCOLAT a 19% shot in the 1 1/16 miles turf, where the morning line — take stripped out — sits near 10%. When our number is 9 points clear of the board, that disagreement is the whole reason to be here.
It tops our power blend for the race; on the numbers it’s the most likely winner, whatever the odds say.
To play it: take 9/2 or better, and check it at the window — on the tote you get the closing price no matter when you bet, so if it’s shorter than that by the gate, the value is gone and it’s a pass.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | ICE CHOCOLAT ◀ | 19% | 4/1 | 7/2 |
| 4 | BEEF WINSLOW | 13% | 7/1 | 3/1 |
| 10 | OCEAN ATLANTIQUE | 12% | 15/2 | 4/1 |
| 12 | INEXORABLE | 11% | 8/1 | 2/1 |
| 3 | BELOUNI | 8% | 12/1 | 6/1 |
| 16 | BRAZENLY | 6% | 15/1 | 7/2 |
| 7 | SANTORINI | 6% | 15/1 | 5/1 |
| 5 | HEATHGUARD | 4% | 25/1 | 12/1 |
| 15 | POWER SEEKER | 4% | 25/1 | 6/1 |
| 14 | THREE TECHNIQUE | 4% | 25/1 | 10/1 |
| 6 | PRESIDER | 3% | 30/1 | 12/1 |
| 13 | PINEAPPLE MAN | 3% | 30/1 | 8/1 |
| 11 | AMBITION | 3% | 30/1 | 15/1 |
| 1 | CLASSIC CREATION | 2% | 50/1 | 15/1 |
| 8 | TREATY OBLIGATION | 2% | 50/1 | 20/1 |
| 9 | LOU | 1% | 99/1 | 30/1 |
The model’s read ▾
We make DEEP SATIN a 13% chance in the 1 mile turf; the line implies about 8%, and that 5-point gap over the board is the flag.
On the figures it’s the one we rate highest in here, so a longer price reads as the market underrating it.
The race sets up with contested early pace (3 speed types), a shape that tends to favor closers.
To play it: take 15/2 or better, and check it at the window — on the tote you get the closing price no matter when you bet, so if it’s shorter than that by the gate, the value is gone and it’s a pass.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | SANDTRAP | 15% | 6/1 | 3/1 |
| 9 | DEEP SATIN ◀ | 13% | 13/2 | 5/1 |
| 7 | PROCTOR STREET | 11% | 8/1 | 4/1 |
| 3 | AND ONE MORE TIME | 11% | 8/1 | 4/1 |
| 13 | WITH THE ANGELS | 10% | 9/1 | 3/1 |
| 11 | SCALABLE | 8% | 12/1 | 5/2 |
| 2 | HANG THE MOON | 7% | 12/1 | 8/1 |
| 12 | BERNIETAKESCHARGE | 7% | 12/1 | 4/1 |
| 8 | AWESOME CZECH | 6% | 15/1 | 6/1 |
| 10 | BEING BETTY | 3% | 30/1 | 20/1 |
| 14 | GOING STEADY | 3% | 30/1 | 12/1 |
| 6 | LONG AGO | 3% | 30/1 | 12/1 |
| 1 | SALTY SENORITA | 2% | 50/1 | 30/1 |
| 5 | TABLE FLIRT | 2% | 50/1 | 20/1 |