Del Mar — Fri Jul 17, 2026
How this card is made & how to verify it
Edge Card v0 is a transparent heuristic, not a trained model: Prime-Power softmax blended 50/50 with the de-vigged morning line, plus a published rules-based pace adjustment. Constants on the methodology page. Structured analysis, not proven edge; tracked publicly either way.
It reads Brisnet figures and pace only — not trainer, jockey, trip, or track bias yet; that arrives with the trained v1 model. Fair odds are 1 ÷ our win probability.
New here? How to read a flag
- Model
- Our estimated win chance for the horse.
- Fair
- The odds that chance implies — the price where a bet breaks even.
- Board
- The morning line, the track's early guess at the odds.
- Play at X or better
- Only bet if you can get that price or longer. The edge is in the price.
- Pass
- Most races. Our number agrees with the board, so there's nothing to bet.
The model’s read ▾
This is the widest gap on today’s card. We make VICTORIOUS DREAM a 24% shot in the 1 1/16 miles turf, where the morning line — take stripped out — sits near 12%. When our number is 12 points clear of the board, that disagreement is the whole reason to be here.
It tops our power blend for the race; on the numbers it’s the most likely winner, whatever the odds say.
To play it: take 7/2 or better, and check it at the window — on the tote you get the closing price no matter when you bet, so if it’s shorter than that by the gate, the value is gone and it’s a pass.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | RED CHERRY | 26% | 3/1 | 8/5 |
| 3 | VICTORIOUS DREAM ◀ | 24% | 3/1 | 6/1 |
| 4 | STRUCK BY HER | 17% | 5/1 | 7/2 |
| 1 | PEPPERMINT DASH | 12% | 15/2 | 4/1 |
| 5 | SOUL SISTER | 11% | 8/1 | 6/1 |
| 6 | WAITING FOR YOU | 10% | 9/1 | 6/1 |
The model’s read ▾
CHARLIE'S CLOCK is one of the more likely winners we flag today — a 32% chance in the 5 1/2 furlongs dirt the board still prices like a longer shot (about 27% once you strip the take). The gap is smaller in points (6) but it’s on a horse we genuinely rate to win.
On the figures it’s the one we rate highest in here, so a longer price reads as the market underrating it.
To play it: take 5/2 or better, and check it at the window — on the tote you get the closing price no matter when you bet, so if it’s shorter than that by the gate, the value is gone and it’s a pass.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CHARLIE'S CLOCK ◀ | 32% | 2/1 | 2/1 |
| 6 | BILLY GOAT | 20% | 4/1 | 5/2 |
| 4 | LOST ANGELES | 16% | 5/1 | 4/1 |
| 3 | BOSS MAN BOLT | 14% | 13/2 | 4/1 |
| 5 | FREE SOLO | 12% | 15/2 | 6/1 |
| 2 | JACK EM UP | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 |
The model’s read ▾
We make CODE DUELLO a 24% chance in the 5 furlongs turf; the line implies about 18%, and that 6-point gap over the board is the flag.
Our power-rating blend makes it the best of this field — which is why the board’s price looks a step generous.
The race sets up with contested early pace (4 speed types), a shape that tends to favor closers.
To play it: take 7/2 or better, and check it at the window — on the tote you get the closing price no matter when you bet, so if it’s shorter than that by the gate, the value is gone and it’s a pass.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CODE DUELLO ◀ | 24% | 3/1 | 7/2 |
| 4 | DONCIC | 14% | 6/1 | 3/1 |
| 8 | SMART CODE | 13% | 13/2 | 6/1 |
| 5 | NASTY HABIT | 12% | 7/1 | 4/1 |
| 3 | ALPHABETICAL ORDER | 12% | 15/2 | 6/1 |
| 7 | GREGORY'S PRIDE | 11% | 15/2 | 6/1 |
| 2 | MUBTADAA | 10% | 9/1 | 12/1 |
| 6 | TOM SEAVER | 3% | 30/1 | 15/1 |
The model’s read ▾
A price play. We give SECURED FREEDOM about a 11% chance in the 1 mile turf — not likely on its own, but the board has it even longer, and a 5-point gap on a horse this price is where a payout actually lives.
It tops our power blend for the race; on the numbers it’s the most likely winner, whatever the odds say.
To play it: take 9/1 or better, and check it at the window — on the tote you get the closing price no matter when you bet, so if it’s shorter than that by the gate, the value is gone and it’s a pass.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | MR. A. P. | 14% | 6/1 | 5/1 |
| 12 | LATER THAN PLANNED | 12% | 7/1 | 6/1 |
| 5 | BUST OUT | 12% | 15/2 | 4/1 |
| 2 | SECURED FREEDOM ◀ | 11% | 8/1 | 12/1 |
| 3 | UNRIVALED TIME | 8% | 12/1 | 12/1 |
| 4 | PROLETARIAT | 8% | 12/1 | 8/1 |
| 8 | CHARLIE'S CURLIN | 8% | 12/1 | 6/1 |
| 1 | IRISEACH | 7% | 15/1 | 8/1 |
| 11 | JORDI BEAR | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 |
| 7 | TIZ ALL THAT | 5% | 15/1 | 12/1 |
| 10 | ONE MORE FREUD | 5% | 20/1 | 15/1 |
| 9 | MO KOKO | 3% | 30/1 | 30/1 |