Saratoga & Del Mar · 2026 Meets · Model v0 · the anti-tout
Transparent model race-cards

The Record

Flat 1u · losses count the same as wins

No scored cards yet. The record starts with the first results post — wins and losses, every one.

DateTrack/RaceHorseModelFairPlay≥BoardCloseResult
The book opens with the first results post →

Closing-Line Scoreboard

Did our flagged price hold to post?

Before every race we publish a “play at X or better” price. In a pari-mutuel pool your payout is set by the final odds no matter when you bet, so the only price that counts is the close. After the race we check whether the closing tote odds actually reached the price we asked for. If they did, the value we flagged was real and takeable; if the horse closed shorter, it was a pass — not a bet you missed by timing.

No graded prices yet. Fills with the first results post.

Calibration

When we say 30%, do they win 30%?

Across every runner we priced — not just the flags — binned by our model win probability against how often they actually won. The probabilities were hash-chained before post, so this is an honest reliability check, not a backtest.

No scored runners yet. Fills with the first results post.

Provenance

One hash chain, verifiable

The public ledger is one continuous SHA-256 chain: every card’s lock entry references the exact bytes of the entry before it, so a back-edit anywhere breaks the walk. Chain status: verified ✓ · 4 entries · 1 card.

SARThu Jul 16 · SHA 970405a2813327fc…