Saratoga — Fri Jul 17, 2026

Saratoga · 10 races · published 12:33 PM ET · card locked

4 value plays today · 6 races we're passing

How this card is made & how to verify it

Edge Card v0 is a transparent heuristic, not a trained model: Prime-Power softmax blended 50/50 with the de-vigged morning line, plus a published rules-based pace adjustment. Constants on the methodology page. Structured analysis, not proven edge; tracked publicly either way.

Model v0-heuristic-1.2 · cfg b00cb21f · code 958a2d2e · takeout (SAR) win 16% / exacta 18.5% · card SHA-256 cb1ec2f6d1d6… · Scratches as of 12:24 PM ET. Late scratches void at scoring; the card is never edited.

Flags 4 of 10 races

New here? How to read a flag

Model: Our estimated win chance for the horse.
Fair: The odds that chance implies — the price where a bet breaks even.
Board: The morning line, the track's early guess at the odds.
Play at X or better: Only bet if you can get that price or longer. The edge is in the price.
Pass: Most races. Our number agrees with the board, so there's nothing to bet.

Odds note: 7/2 is the same as +350.

Race 1 · 5 1/2 furlongs · turf · Md Sp WtFlag

3BEIJING

Model

Fair

Board

22%

7/2

11/2

our win %

break-even

the morning line

We flag it because the board (11/2) pays more than our fair price (7/2). Same horse, longer price.

The market

16%

Edge Card

22% +6 pts

▸ PLAY AT 4/1 OR BETTER

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend. Even pace

Data · Brisnet

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
2	RED SQUARE	27%	5/2	8/5
3	BEIJING ◀	22%	7/2	4/1
6	BLAZING TIGER	16%	11/2	9/2
5	HE'S MY KIND	16%	11/2	3/1
7	FRENCHQUARTER NOTE	10%	9/1	6/1
1	SHIRL'S SOUL TOWN	6%	15/1	12/1
4	ONEPAC	4%	25/1	20/1

Race 5 · 5 1/2 furlongs · turf · OClm 45000n2xFlag

1BOSTON'S PHINEST

Model

Fair

Board

16%

5/1

12/1

our win %

break-even

the morning line

We flag it because the board (12/1) pays more than our fair price (5/1). Same horse, longer price.

The market

Edge Card

16% +9 pts

▸ PLAY AT 6/1 OR BETTER

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend. Contested pace likely (6 early-speed types)

Data · Brisnet

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
1	BOSTON'S PHINEST ◀	16%	5/1	5/1
9	PARTY IN THE ARMY	14%	13/2	5/2
10	ANYWAY	11%	8/1	3/1
5	TWISTED FILIGREE	9%	10/1	2/1
6	VACATION DANCE	9%	10/1	5/2
13	NEW YORK SCRAPPY	9%	10/1	4/1
7	FUNNY FACTOR	8%	11/1	6/1
8	COURTLY BANKER	6%	15/1	5/1
2	PROJECTABILITY	6%	15/1	8/1
11	JACKSON HEIGHTS	3%	30/1	10/1
14	BEARY FUNNY	3%	30/1	12/1
12	KID BILLY	3%	30/1	8/1
4	DISARMED	2%	50/1	15/1
3	GRAYWING	1%	99/1	50/1

Race 8 · 1 1/16 miles · turf · Clm 40000Flag

2ICE CHOCOLAT

Model

Fair

Board

19%

4/1

9/1

our win %

break-even

the morning line

We flag it because the board (9/1) pays more than our fair price (4/1). Same horse, longer price.

The market

10%

Edge Card

19% +9 pts

▸ PLAY AT 9/2 OR BETTER

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend. Even pace

Data · Brisnet

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
2	ICE CHOCOLAT ◀	19%	4/1	7/2
4	BEEF WINSLOW	13%	7/1	3/1
10	OCEAN ATLANTIQUE	12%	15/2	4/1
12	INEXORABLE	11%	8/1	2/1
3	BELOUNI	8%	12/1	6/1
16	BRAZENLY	6%	15/1	7/2
7	SANTORINI	6%	15/1	5/1
5	HEATHGUARD	4%	25/1	12/1
15	POWER SEEKER	4%	25/1	6/1
14	THREE TECHNIQUE	4%	25/1	10/1
6	PRESIDER	3%	30/1	12/1
13	PINEAPPLE MAN	3%	30/1	8/1
11	AMBITION	3%	30/1	15/1
1	CLASSIC CREATION	2%	50/1	15/1
8	TREATY OBLIGATION	2%	50/1	20/1
9	LOU	1%	99/1	30/1

Race 9 · 1 mile · turf · DeLaRoseL150kFlag

9DEEP SATIN

Model

Fair

Board

13%

13/2

12/1

our win %

break-even

the morning line

We flag it because the board (12/1) pays more than our fair price (13/2). Same horse, longer price.

The market

Edge Card

13% +5 pts

▸ PLAY AT 15/2 OR BETTER

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend; closer in a contested-pace setup. Contested pace likely (3 early-speed types)

Data · Brisnet

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
4	SANDTRAP	15%	6/1	3/1
9	DEEP SATIN ◀	13%	13/2	5/1
7	PROCTOR STREET	11%	8/1	4/1
3	AND ONE MORE TIME	11%	8/1	4/1
13	WITH THE ANGELS	10%	9/1	3/1
11	SCALABLE	8%	12/1	5/2
2	HANG THE MOON	7%	12/1	8/1
12	BERNIETAKESCHARGE	7%	12/1	4/1
8	AWESOME CZECH	6%	15/1	6/1
10	BEING BETTY	3%	30/1	20/1
14	GOING STEADY	3%	30/1	12/1
6	LONG AGO	3%	30/1	12/1
1	SALTY SENORITA	2%	50/1	30/1
5	TABLE FLIRT	2%	50/1	20/1

Passes no bet — our number agrees with the market

R23DISCOTHEQUE22%3/1

R38TWENTY FOUR MAMBA18%3/1

R46R KAN'T MISS20%3/1

R616GEORGIA MAGIC10%7/2

R79MIRAGE25%2/1

R102DONNA ROMANO21%2/1