Del Mar — Fri Jul 17, 2026
How this card is made & how to verify it
Edge Card v0 is a transparent heuristic, not a trained model: Prime-Power softmax blended 50/50 with the de-vigged morning line, plus a published rules-based pace adjustment. Constants on the methodology page. Structured analysis, not proven edge; tracked publicly either way.
It reads Brisnet figures and pace only — not trainer, jockey, trip, or track bias yet; that arrives with the trained v1 model. Fair odds are 1 ÷ our win probability.
New here? How to read a flag
- Model
- Our estimated win chance for the horse.
- Fair
- The odds that chance implies — the price where a bet breaks even.
- Board
- The morning line, the track's early guess at the odds.
- Play at X or better
- Only bet if you can get that price or longer. The edge is in the price.
- Pass
- Most races. Our number agrees with the board, so there's nothing to bet.
The model’s read ▾
The best thing on our card today, and it isn't close. We make Victorious Dream a 24% chance in the mile-and-a-sixteenth turf, where the board is treating him like a horse half that likely — a twelve-point gap, the widest we've got. He tops our figures, and there's only one true speed in here to worry about, so nothing about the shape argues against him.
Fair is 3/1. He's a bet at 7/2 or better and a pass under it — on the tote you take the closing price, and a horse this live tends to get bet down, so watch the board late and don't chase a short one.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | RED CHERRY | 26% | 3/1 | 8/5 |
| 3 | VICTORIOUS DREAM ◀ | 24% | 3/1 | 6/1 |
| 4 | STRUCK BY HER | 17% | 5/1 | 7/2 |
| 1 | PEPPERMINT DASH | 12% | 15/2 | 4/1 |
| 5 | SOUL SISTER | 11% | 8/1 | 6/1 |
| 6 | WAITING FOR YOU | 10% | 9/1 | 6/1 |
The model’s read ▾
Our most confident number on the day belongs to a maiden. We make Charlie's Clock a 32% shot in the dirt sprint — the likeliest winner we flag anywhere. The catch is the board already knows it: he's the favorite, so the room between our price and theirs is narrow.
That makes the discipline the whole game here. Fair is 2/1; take 5/2 or better and skip it if he's bet shorter. A short-priced flag is still a flag, but only at a price that pays for the risk.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CHARLIE'S CLOCK ◀ | 32% | 2/1 | 2/1 |
| 6 | BILLY GOAT | 20% | 4/1 | 5/2 |
| 4 | LOST ANGELES | 16% | 5/1 | 4/1 |
| 3 | BOSS MAN BOLT | 14% | 13/2 | 4/1 |
| 5 | FREE SOLO | 12% | 15/2 | 6/1 |
| 2 | JACK EM UP | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 |
The model’s read ▾
This one's a wrinkle. Code Duello is our top figure in the five-furlong turf dash, but the race is a speed brawl — four early types — and he's one of them, so we actually knocked his number down for the traffic he'll face up front. Even after that markdown, our 24% sits clear of the board.
So it's a flag we're a little cautious on. Fair 3/1, play 7/2 or better. If the pace melts down the way four-deep speed usually does, he's vulnerable; we've priced some of that in, not all of it.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CODE DUELLO ◀ | 24% | 3/1 | 7/2 |
| 4 | DONCIC | 14% | 6/1 | 3/1 |
| 8 | SMART CODE | 13% | 13/2 | 6/1 |
| 5 | NASTY HABIT | 12% | 7/1 | 4/1 |
| 3 | ALPHABETICAL ORDER | 12% | 15/2 | 6/1 |
| 7 | GREGORY'S PRIDE | 11% | 15/2 | 6/1 |
| 2 | MUBTADAA | 10% | 9/1 | 12/1 |
| 6 | TOM SEAVER | 3% | 30/1 | 15/1 |
The model’s read ▾
A price play in the Oceanside. We give Secured Freedom about an 11% chance at a mile on the grass — not likely on its own, but the crowd has written it off at odds far longer than we'd make it, and that's where a payout actually lives. It tops our figures despite the neglect.
Fair is 8/1; the number to demand is 9/1 or better. This is a swing, not a stand — one unit at the price, and no heartbreak if it doesn't come.
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | MR. A. P. | 14% | 6/1 | 5/1 |
| 12 | LATER THAN PLANNED | 12% | 7/1 | 6/1 |
| 5 | BUST OUT | 12% | 15/2 | 4/1 |
| 2 | SECURED FREEDOM ◀ | 11% | 8/1 | 12/1 |
| 3 | UNRIVALED TIME | 8% | 12/1 | 12/1 |
| 4 | PROLETARIAT | 8% | 12/1 | 8/1 |
| 8 | CHARLIE'S CURLIN | 8% | 12/1 | 6/1 |
| 1 | IRISEACH | 7% | 15/1 | 8/1 |
| 11 | JORDI BEAR | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 |
| 7 | TIZ ALL THAT | 5% | 15/1 | 12/1 |
| 10 | ONE MORE FREUD | 5% | 20/1 | 15/1 |
| 9 | MO KOKO | 3% | 30/1 | 30/1 |