Del Mar — Thu Jul 30, 2026
We lose most single flags — that’s expected. The edge is price: when we’re right, the board paid more than fair. Our 30% picks win about 30% (see the calibration curve), and every call is graded against the closing odds — wins and losses.
No set price. On the tote you’re paid the closing odds, so the edge isn’t a line you beat early — it’s the gap between our fair number and where the crowd lands. We grade each flag against the actual close.
Our last miss: SAR R11 Tuthilltown, flagged at 12/1, didn’t win — on the record like every call.
How this card is made & how to verify it
Edge Card v0 is a transparent heuristic, not a trained model: Prime-Power softmax blended 65/35 with the de-vigged morning line, plus published rules-based pace and trainer-form adjustments (the trainer angle is used as a model input; the raw figure is never published). Constants on the methodology page. Structured analysis, not proven edge; tracked publicly either way.
It reads Brisnet figures, pace, and trainer form — not jockey, trip, or track bias yet; those arrive with the trained v1 model. The trainer angle is used as a model input only; we never publish the raw figure. Fair odds are 1 ÷ our win probability.
The hold/shorten read on each flag is an early signal from its committed board price — long-priced flags the crowd leaves alone tend to hold, short ones get bet down. It’s a heuristic on a small sample; every call is graded on the record.
Verifying this card
| Downloadable artifact hash | 81b42c1e625ff520710d55bedf86c51834ba447f189e0487dda1b3053c47d0c6 |
|---|---|
| OpenTimestamps status | OpenTimestamps calendar commitment; Bitcoin confirmation pending |
New here? How to read a flag
- Model
- Our estimated win chance for the horse.
- Fair
- The odds that chance implies — the price where a bet breaks even.
- Board
- The morning line, the track's early guess at the odds.
- Win bet
- Bet the horse to win. Pari-mutuel pays the closing price no matter when you bet, so you're backing the horse, not a fixed price.
- Hold / bet down
- Whether the price should stay long or get bet down by post — how much of the edge is likely to survive.
- The rest of the card
- Most races. We still show our top pick and a read on it, but there's no overlay worth a bet.
The model’s read ▾
We make SMILE BABY SMILE a 15% chance in the 6 1/2 furlongs dirt; the line implies about 9%, and that 6-point gap over the board is the flag.
It tops our power blend for the race; on the numbers it’s the most likely winner, whatever the odds say.
The race sets up with contested early pace (5 speed types), and this one profiles to come from off it — we pushed its number up for that (×1.1).
To play it: a straight win bet on #2. Our fair is 11/2. On the tote you’re paid the closing price no matter when you bet, so you’re backing the horse, not a fixed price — the hold/shorten read above says how much of the edge is likely to survive to post.
Fair-value exotics ▾
| Ticket | Cost | Hit | Fair return | After ~20% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key exacta #2 / #1, #9 longshot | $2.00 | 5.5% | $36.52 | $29.22 |
| Keyed trifecta #2 / #1, #9 / #1, #9, #8, #6 longshot | $3.00 | 3.2% | $93.48 | $74.78 |
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | STAY IN LINE | 16% | 5/1 | 5/2 |
| 2 | SMILE BABY SMILE ◀ | 15% | 11/2 | 8/1 |
| 9 | SHOP TILL YOU DROP | 15% | 11/2 | 4/1 |
| 8 | TEQUILAANDTHERAPY | 14% | 13/2 | 6/1 |
| 6 | CLUBHOUSE BRIDE | 11% | 15/2 | 6/1 |
| 7 | RUNNING SUPER | 10% | 9/1 | 8/1 |
| 3 | KNIGHTWITHLOUIS | 9% | 11/1 | 10/1 |
| 4 | BAYTOWN BUTTERFLY | 7% | 12/1 | 8/1 |
| 5 | SEXY BLUE | 3% | 30/1 | 20/1 |
The model’s read ▾
We make MIO BAMBINO a 19% chance in the 1 mile dirt; the line implies about 13%, and that 6-point gap over the board is the flag.
On the figures it’s the one we rate highest in here, so a longer price reads as the market underrating it.
The race sets up with contested early pace (4 speed types), and this one profiles to come from off it — we pushed its number up for that (×1.1).
To play it: a straight win bet on #7. Our fair is 4/1. On the tote you’re paid the closing price no matter when you bet, so you’re backing the horse, not a fixed price — the hold/shorten read above says how much of the edge is likely to survive to post.
Fair-value exotics ▾
| Ticket | Cost | Hit | Fair return | After ~20% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key exacta #7 / #5, #6 longshot | $2.00 | 6.8% | $29.30 | $23.44 |
| Keyed trifecta #7 / #5, #6 / #5, #6, #1, #4 longshot | $3.00 | 4% | $75.21 | $60.17 |
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | MIO BAMBINO ◀ | 19% | 4/1 | 5/1 |
| 5 | RHYTHEM ON STAGE | 15% | 6/1 | 7/2 |
| 6 | SOI NGERN | 14% | 6/1 | 4/1 |
| 1 | BOWTIE BOYS | 14% | 6/1 | 3/1 |
| 4 | FIX IT QUICK | 10% | 9/1 | 8/1 |
| 9 | SPIRITUAL ADVISOR | 9% | 10/1 | 12/1 |
| 8 | WHAT A GIFT | 7% | 12/1 | 12/1 |
| 2 | TEE N OFF | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 |
| 3 | TIGGRRR WHITWORTH | 5% | 20/1 | 12/1 |
The model’s read ▾
We make JUSTIVAR a 26% chance in the 1 mile turf; the line implies about 18%, and that 8-point gap over the board is the flag.
It tops our power blend for the race; on the numbers it’s the most likely winner, whatever the odds say.
To play it: a straight win bet on #10. Our fair is 3/1. On the tote you’re paid the closing price no matter when you bet, so you’re backing the horse, not a fixed price — the hold/shorten read above says how much of the edge is likely to survive to post.
Fair-value exotics ▾
| Ticket | Cost | Hit | Fair return | After ~20% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key exacta #10 / #6, #9 value | $2.00 | 11.5% | $17.41 | $13.93 |
| Keyed trifecta #10 / #6, #9 / #6, #9, #11, #7 longshot | $3.00 | 5.8% | $51.48 | $41.18 |
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | JUSTIVAR ◀ | 26% | 3/1 | 7/2 |
| 6 | ASTRONOMICALLY | 22% | 7/2 | 8/1 |
| 9 | VELVET REIGN | 12% | 15/2 | 4/1 |
| 11 | ZURAYA | 8% | 12/1 | 5/1 |
| 7 | MEDINA DEL CAMPO | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 |
| 5 | STORM LADY | 6% | 15/1 | 10/1 |
| 4 | WINIKA | 6% | 15/1 | 8/1 |
| 1 | SUNNY CREED | 5% | 20/1 | 12/1 |
| 8 | ALYN'S GIRL | 4% | 20/1 | 15/1 |
| 3 | CAVES | 4% | 25/1 | 12/1 |
| 2 | AUTHENTIC GRACE | 3% | 30/1 | 15/1 |
The model’s read ▾
This is the widest gap on today’s card. We make ASTRONOMICALLY a 22% shot in the 1 mile turf, where the morning line — take stripped out — sits near 9%. When our number is 13 points clear of the board, that disagreement is the whole reason to be here.
It sits second on our power blend, close enough to the top that the price still looks generous.
To play it: a straight win bet on #6. Our fair is 7/2. On the tote you’re paid the closing price no matter when you bet, so you’re backing the horse, not a fixed price — the hold/shorten read above says how much of the edge is likely to survive to post.
Fair-value exotics ▾
| Ticket | Cost | Hit | Fair return | After ~20% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key exacta #6 / #10, #9 value | $2.00 | 10.3% | $19.49 | $15.59 |
| Keyed trifecta #6 / #10, #9 / #10, #9, #11, #7 longshot | $3.00 | 5.3% | $57.03 | $45.62 |
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | JUSTIVAR | 26% | 3/1 | 7/2 |
| 6 | ASTRONOMICALLY ◀ | 22% | 7/2 | 8/1 |
| 9 | VELVET REIGN | 12% | 15/2 | 4/1 |
| 11 | ZURAYA | 8% | 12/1 | 5/1 |
| 7 | MEDINA DEL CAMPO | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 |
| 5 | STORM LADY | 6% | 15/1 | 10/1 |
| 4 | WINIKA | 6% | 15/1 | 8/1 |
| 1 | SUNNY CREED | 5% | 20/1 | 12/1 |
| 8 | ALYN'S GIRL | 4% | 20/1 | 15/1 |
| 3 | CAVES | 4% | 25/1 | 12/1 |
| 2 | AUTHENTIC GRACE | 3% | 30/1 | 15/1 |
Multi-race tickets — research, not plays ▾
| Build | Cost | Hit | Fair return | After ~20% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conviction | $1.00 | 0.17% | $576.07 | $460.86 |
| R5 #9 · R6 #7 · R7 #10, #3 · R8 #6 | ||||
| Coverage | $4.00 | 0.55% | $725.96 | $580.77 |
| R5 #9, #2 · R6 #7 · R7 #10, #3, #4, #5 · R8 #6 | ||||
| Build | Cost | Hit | Fair return | After ~20% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conviction | $2.00 | 0.05% | $3960.59 | $3168.47 |
| R4 #8, #9 · R5 #9 · R6 #7 · R7 #10, #3 · R8 #6 | ||||
| Coverage | $16.00 | 0.3% | $5309.66 | $4247.73 |
| R4 #8, #9, #3, #1 · R5 #9, #2 · R6 #7 · R7 #10, #3, #4, #5 · R8 #6 | ||||
| Build | Cost | Hit | Fair return | After ~20% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conviction | $0.80 | 0.01% | $7504.67 | $6003.74 |
| R3 #6 · R4 #8, #9 · R5 #9 · R6 #7 · R7 #10, #3 · R8 #6 | ||||
| Coverage | $12.80 | 0.13% | $10235.49 | $8188.39 |
| R3 #6, #4 · R4 #8, #9, #3, #1 · R5 #9, #2 · R6 #7 · R7 #10, #3, #4, #5 · R8 #6 | ||||
| Build | Cost | Hit | Fair return | After ~20% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conviction | $1.00 | 1.02% | $98.28 | $78.62 |
| R6 #7 · R7 #10, #3 · R8 #6 | ||||
| Coverage | $2.00 | 1.84% | $108.50 | $86.80 |
| R6 #7 · R7 #10, #3, #4, #5 · R8 #6 | ||||
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | SUGAR REIGN | 21% | 7/2 | 3/1 |
| 4 | SPRINGLINE | 20% | 4/1 | 5/2 |
| 5 | LADY RUTH | 18% | 9/2 | 7/2 |
| 1 | ISNTSHELOVERLY | 13% | 13/2 | 5/1 |
| 3 | MELBA MONTGOMERY | 12% | 15/2 | 6/1 |
| 8 | SMOKEM HOT GIRL | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 |
| 2 | DARLIN' DUCHESS | 6% | 15/1 | 15/1 |
| 7 | HARD HEARTED | 4% | 25/1 | 20/1 |
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | ZOMBO BOMBO | 15% | 11/2 | 3/1 |
| 9 | CHASIN MUNNY | 14% | 6/1 | 6/1 |
| 3 | COME OUT FIGHTING | 14% | 6/1 | 5/2 |
| 1 | WINDRIBBON | 11% | 15/2 | 5/1 |
| 2 | KAHUNA MAGIC | 11% | 8/1 | 12/1 |
| 7 | MAGIC CONNECTION | 10% | 9/1 | 8/1 |
| 4 | SWAGGISH | 9% | 11/1 | 12/1 |
| 5 | PERFECTO AMOR | 7% | 15/1 | 15/1 |
| 6 | THE KEY IS UNITY | 5% | 20/1 | 20/1 |
| 10 | MANDELA EFFECT | 4% | 25/1 | 20/1 |
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | BIRKIN GIRL | 17% | 5/1 | 4/1 |
| 2 | CAT THE CONFIDANTE | 13% | 7/1 | 7/2 |
| 4 | REHEARSAL | 11% | 8/1 | 6/1 |
| 10 | SPECIALTY | 10% | 9/1 | 12/1 |
| 1 | KINTRIGUE | 10% | 9/1 | 8/1 |
| 3 | ANGELICA BAY | 9% | 10/1 | 8/1 |
| 8 | LIL'S COFFEE | 7% | 12/1 | 6/1 |
| 11 | LANILLA | 7% | 15/1 | 12/1 |
| 5 | ORANGE THUNDER | 7% | 15/1 | 12/1 |
| 6 | SHINING RIVER | 6% | 15/1 | 15/1 |
| 7 | INTUITIVEBYNATURE | 4% | 25/1 | 20/1 |
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | SYNTAX | 13% | 13/2 | 7/2 |
| 3 | MISS KONA | 12% | 15/2 | 4/1 |
| 4 | LA SILENCIOSA | 10% | 9/1 | 6/1 |
| 5 | BESSIE COLEMAN | 10% | 9/1 | 8/1 |
| 1 | REDHEADED REBA | 10% | 9/1 | 8/1 |
| 7 | THE LOAN EXCHANGE | 9% | 10/1 | 12/1 |
| 8 | MISS PRACTICAL | 8% | 11/1 | 8/1 |
| 9 | LADY GREGORY | 7% | 12/1 | 12/1 |
| 11 | LADY GAMBITA | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 |
| 6 | TIMEKEEPER'S CHARM | 6% | 15/1 | 15/1 |
| 2 | BABY NEEDS SHOES | 5% | 20/1 | 20/1 |
| 12 | HARNEY LANE | 4% | 20/1 | 30/1 |