Del Mar — Sun Jul 26, 2026

Del Mar · 11 races · published 12:03 AM ET · card locked

4 value plays today · 7 races we're passing

Archived card · races already run

These plays were published and locked before first post on Sun Jul 26, 2026. They are kept exactly as published, wins and losses alike, and are no longer actionable. Prices shown were the qualifying prices at publication.

Every selection we have ever published is graded on the record. The methodology is on the methodology page.

Edge of the Day

5COME ON OM

Race 5 · 5 furlongs turf

29%model5/2fair4/1boardWINpaid at the close

Our biggest edge on the card today (+13 pts over the board) — the crowd will likely bet it down, so expect a shorter number — size it smaller. Chosen by rule: the flag with the most value, graded like any other.

Public record16–38flags, W–L+15.2uflat-$2+14.1%flat-bet ROI, n=54every call hash-stamped before post →

We lose most single flags — that’s expected. The edge is price: when we’re right, the board paid more than fair. Our 30% picks win about 30% (see the calibration curve), and every call is graded against the closing odds — wins and losses.

No set price. On the tote you’re paid the closing odds, so the edge isn’t a line you beat early — it’s the gap between our fair number and where the crowd lands. We grade each flag against the actual close.

Our last miss: SAR R11 Tuthilltown, flagged at 12/1, didn’t win — on the record like every call.

Today at Del MarMostly Cloudy, 69°F, wind 0 to 5 mph · rain 1% — no off-track flagNWS forecast

How this card is made & how to verify it

Edge Card v0 is a transparent heuristic, not a trained model: Prime-Power softmax blended 65/35 with the de-vigged morning line, plus published rules-based pace and trainer-form adjustments (the trainer angle is used as a model input; the raw figure is never published). Constants on the methodology page. Structured analysis, not proven edge; tracked publicly either way.

It reads Brisnet figures, pace, and trainer form — not jockey, trip, or track bias yet; those arrive with the trained v1 model. The trainer angle is used as a model input only; we never publish the raw figure. Fair odds are 1 ÷ our win probability.

The hold/shorten read on each flag is an early signal from its committed board price — long-priced flags the crowd leaves alone tend to hold, short ones get bet down. It’s a heuristic on a small sample; every call is graded on the record.

Model v0-heuristic-1.4 · cfg aab788cb · code 3c797c7f · takeout (DMR) win 15.43% / exacta 22.68% · card SHA-256 ee2f7ccdc08a… · Scratch status checked at 5:49 PM ET. Late scratches void at scoring; the card is never edited.

Verifying this card

Downloadable artifact hash	`1c5d42b418bbde69146f2cfadc58ae9d2178cb6f2571024f56eef618f6ac5f1b`
Original recorded lock hash	`ee2f7ccdc08a723a5308e68a9c353669da3986c4cfafe297b023b57b8bc18e2a`
OpenTimestamps status	Bitcoin confirmed — block 959652

This card was generated on Windows. Its original lock hash was calculated from CRLF-formatted bytes before Git stored the same JSON with LF line endings. The selections and JSON values are unchanged. Use the downloadable artifact hash above to verify the public file. Full correction record · chc-2026-07-26-dmr-card-01.

Metadata note. This card’s meta.json proof commits to the metadata as originally published. That file was later edited (publish time, weather, per-pick notes), so it no longer matches its original proof. A separate proof for the current metadata is published as meta.current.json.ots. The card hash embedded in the metadata never changed, and this card’s card.json proof is unaffected.

Flags 4 of 11 races

New here? How to read a flag

Model: Our estimated win chance for the horse.
Fair: The odds that chance implies — the price where a bet breaks even.
Board: The morning line, the track's early guess at the odds.
Win bet: Bet the horse to win. Pari-mutuel pays the closing price no matter when you bet, so you're backing the horse, not a fixed price.
Hold / bet down: Whether the price should stay long or get bet down by post — how much of the edge is likely to survive.
The rest of the card: Most races. We still show our top pick and a read on it, but there's no overlay worth a bet.

Odds note: 7/2 is the same as +350.

Race 4 · 1 mile · dirt · OClm 50000n1xFlag

4RABEEBA

Model

Fair

Board

22%

7/2

5/1

our win %

break-even

the morning line

We flag it because the board (5/1) pays more than our fair price (7/2). Same horse, longer price.

The market

13%

Edge Card

22% +8 pts

▸ WIN BET · #4 to win · our fair 7/2, paid at the close

Price may move A mid board price — it can hold or shorten into post. You are paid the closing price either way, so bet the horse and take the number you get.

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend. Even pace

Data · Brisnet

The model’s read ▾

We make RABEEBA a 22% chance in the 1 mile dirt; the line implies about 13%, and that 8-point gap over the board is the flag.

Our power-rating blend makes it the best of this field — which is why the board’s price looks a step generous.

To play it: a straight win bet on #4. Our fair is 7/2. On the tote you’re paid the closing price no matter when you bet, so you’re backing the horse, not a fixed price — the hold/shorten read above says how much of the edge is likely to survive to post.

Fair-value exotics ▾

Model-fair reference prices, not a +EV call. Exotics take ~20% off the top, so a pool is an overlay only when the tote's probable pays more than the fair return.

Ticket	Cost	Hit	Fair return	After ~20%
Key exacta #4 / #5, #2 value	$2.00	11.6%	$17.20	$13.76
Keyed trifecta #4 / #5, #2 / #5, #2, #1, #6 value	$3.00	9.9%	$30.27	$24.22

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
4	RABEEBA ◀	22%	7/2	5/1
5	CIPRIANI	22%	7/2	5/2
2	GOODNIGHT NELLIE	20%	4/1	4/1
1	SHARED FUTURE	14%	6/1	7/2
6	QUICK KATE	14%	6/1	4/1
3	MEDJUGORJE	8%	11/1	5/1

Race 5 · 5 furlongs · turf · Md Sp WtFlag

5COME ON OM

Model

Fair

Board

29%

5/2

4/1

our win %

break-even

the morning line

We flag it because the board (4/1) pays more than our fair price (5/2). Same horse, longer price.

The market

16%

Edge Card

29% +13 pts

▸ WIN BET · #5 to win · our fair 5/2, paid at the close

Likely bet down A short board price the late money bets down. Still a win play, but expect a shorter number by post — pari-mutuel pays the closing price, so the edge is thinner here. Size it smaller.

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend. Even pace

Data · Brisnet

The model’s read ▾

This is the widest gap on today’s card. We make COME ON OM a 29% shot in the 5 furlongs turf, where the morning line — take stripped out — sits near 16%. When our number is 13 points clear of the board, that disagreement is the whole reason to be here.

It tops our power blend for the race; on the numbers it’s the most likely winner, whatever the odds say.

To play it: a straight win bet on #5. Our fair is 5/2. On the tote you’re paid the closing price no matter when you bet, so you’re backing the horse, not a fixed price — the hold/shorten read above says how much of the edge is likely to survive to post.

Fair-value exotics ▾

Model-fair reference prices, not a +EV call. Exotics take ~20% off the top, so a pool is an overlay only when the tote's probable pays more than the fair return.

Ticket	Cost	Hit	Fair return	After ~20%
Key exacta #5 / #2, #7 value	$2.00	13.3%	$15.08	$12.06
Keyed trifecta #5 / #2, #7 / #2, #7, #9, #10 longshot	$3.00	7.9%	$38.06	$30.45

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
5	COME ON OM ◀	29%	5/2	4/1
2	VERENICE	20%	4/1	3/1
7	ZUZU'S CLASSIC GAL	13%	13/2	7/2
9	DANZING DAISY	8%	11/1	8/1
10	DRULINER	8%	12/1	8/1
4	MUSTANG KNICKY	5%	15/1	12/1
3	RUNNING IRON	5%	15/1	8/1
1	FIRST LIGHT	5%	20/1	12/1
8	GIRL FIRE	4%	25/1	20/1
6	HAYLEY AMBER	3%	30/1	20/1

Race 8 · 6 furlongs · dirt · Clm 16000n3lFlag

5EMMA G

Model

Fair

Board

14%

13/2

12/1

our win %

break-even

the morning line

We flag it because the board (12/1) pays more than our fair price (13/2). Same horse, longer price.

The market

Edge Card

14% +8 pts

▸ WIN BET · #5 to win · our fair 13/2, paid at the close

Price should hold A long board price the late money tends to leave alone, so you should still get a strong number at post — the fullest version of the edge.

Ranks #2 in our power figure blend; closer in a contested-pace setup. Contested pace likely (5 early-speed types)

Data · Brisnet

The model’s read ▾

We make EMMA G a 14% chance in the 6 furlongs dirt; the line implies about 6%, and that 8-point gap over the board is the flag.

It sits second on our power blend, close enough to the top that the price still looks generous.

The race sets up with contested early pace (5 speed types), and this one profiles to come from off it — we pushed its number up for that (×1.1).

To play it: a straight win bet on #5. Our fair is 13/2. On the tote you’re paid the closing price no matter when you bet, so you’re backing the horse, not a fixed price — the hold/shorten read above says how much of the edge is likely to survive to post.

Fair-value exotics ▾

Model-fair reference prices, not a +EV call. Exotics take ~20% off the top, so a pool is an overlay only when the tote's probable pays more than the fair return.

Ticket	Cost	Hit	Fair return	After ~20%
Key exacta #5 / #7, #3 longshot	$2.00	6%	$33.50	$26.80
Keyed trifecta #5 / #7, #3 / #7, #3, #6, #8 longshot	$3.00	4%	$74.20	$59.36

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
7	DANZING FLYER	21%	7/2	7/2
3	SPOTTED HAZE	16%	5/1	5/2
6	DONTTELLOURWIVES	16%	5/1	5/1
5	EMMA G ◀	14%	13/2	12/1
8	BEAR'S BOARD	11%	8/1	4/1
1	HOW LOVELY	9%	10/1	5/1
4	LOVELY MEDAGLIA	8%	11/1	12/1
2	CAN YOU DREAM	5%	20/1	15/1

Race 9 · 1 1/8 miles · turf · EdRead-G2Flag

5GOLD PHOENIX

Model

Fair

Board

29%

5/2

3/1

our win %

break-even

the morning line

We flag it because the board (3/1) pays more than our fair price (5/2). Same horse, longer price.

The market

20%

Edge Card

29% +9 pts

▸ WIN BET · #5 to win · our fair 5/2, paid at the close

Ranks #2 in our power figure blend. Even pace

Data · Brisnet

The model’s read ▾

GOLD PHOENIX is one of the more likely winners we flag today — a 29% chance in the 1 1/8 miles turf the board still prices like a longer shot (about 20% once you strip the take). The gap is smaller in points (9) but it’s on a horse we genuinely rate to win.

Our figures put it just behind the field’s best — near enough that the board is leaving value on it.

Fair-value exotics ▾

Model-fair reference prices, not a +EV call. Exotics take ~20% off the top, so a pool is an overlay only when the tote's probable pays more than the fair return.

Ticket	Cost	Hit	Fair return	After ~20%
Key exacta #5 / #8, #4 value	$2.00	16.8%	$11.91	$9.53
Keyed trifecta #5 / #8, #4 / #8, #4, #2, #7 value	$3.00	10.4%	$28.75	$23.00

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
8	FORMIDABLE MAN	34%	2/1	7/5
5	GOLD PHOENIX ◀	29%	5/2	3/1
4	ALMENDARES	8%	11/1	8/1
2	MONDEGO	7%	12/1	8/1
7	SEAL TEAM	7%	15/1	8/1
6	STAY HOT	6%	15/1	10/1
9	MI HERMANO RAMON	4%	25/1	20/1
3	CABO SPIRIT	4%	25/1	12/1
1	ASTRONOMER	2%	50/1	20/1

Multi-race tickets the whole card, keyed on our reads

Late Pick 4 (R8–R11)

Build	Cost	Hit	Fair return	After ~20%
Conviction	$1.00	0.23%	$443.76	$355.01
R8 #5 · R9 #5 · R10 #10, #4 · R11 #5
Coverage	$4.00	0.71%	$563.74	$450.99
R8 #5 · R9 #5 · R10 #10, #4, #6, #8 · R11 #5, #2

Late Pick 5 (R7–R11)

Build	Cost	Hit	Fair return	After ~20%
Conviction	$1.00	0.04%	$2472.19	$1977.75
R7 #2 · R8 #5 · R9 #5 · R10 #10, #4 · R11 #5
Coverage	$8.00	0.22%	$3654.72	$2923.78
R7 #2, #1 · R8 #5 · R9 #5 · R10 #10, #4, #6, #8 · R11 #5, #2

Early Pick 5 (R1–R5)

Build	Cost	Hit	Fair return	After ~20%
Conviction	$0.50	0.09%	$540.26	$432.21
R1 #7 · R2 #2 · R3 #6 · R4 #4 · R5 #5
Coverage	$4.00	0.54%	$746.45	$597.16
R1 #7, #1 · R2 #2, #5 · R3 #6, #1 · R4 #4 · R5 #5

Pick 6 (R6–R11)

Build	Cost	Hit	Fair return	After ~20%
Conviction	$0.80	0.01%	$6540.20	$5232.16
R6 #5, #1 · R7 #2 · R8 #5 · R9 #5 · R10 #10, #4 · R11 #5
Coverage	$12.80	0.12%	$11129.73	$8903.78
R6 #5, #1, #3, #11 · R7 #2, #1 · R8 #5 · R9 #5 · R10 #10, #4, #6, #8 · R11 #5, #2

Rolling Pick 3 (R3–R5)

Build	Cost	Hit	Fair return	After ~20%
Conviction	$0.50	1.67%	$30.00	$24.00
R3 #6 · R4 #4 · R5 #5
Coverage	$1.00	2.9%	$34.51	$27.61
R3 #6, #1 · R4 #4 · R5 #5

Rolling Pick 3 (R2–R4)

Build	Cost	Hit	Fair return	After ~20%
Conviction	$0.50	1.34%	$37.35	$29.88
R2 #2 · R3 #6 · R4 #4
Coverage	$2.00	4.58%	$43.67	$34.94
R2 #2, #5 · R3 #6, #1 · R4 #4

Whole-card tickets keyed on our reads — a tight conviction build and a wider coverage build, singling the flags and spreading the open races. Reference construction, not a +EV call: the hit % assumes the legs are independent (v0 doesn’t model pace or scratches across races), and only the flagged legs are graded bets.

The rest of the card our read on every race — analysis, not a bet

R1Chalk7SAREEHA24%3/15/2

No edge on our top pick — the market has it priced about right.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
7	SAREEHA	24%	3/1	5/2
1	CANDY BAR	17%	5/1	7/2
4	SHOCKING GREY	15%	11/2	6/1
6	CAMERON SLOUGH	13%	13/2	4/1
8	CORPORAL VIOLETTE	9%	10/1	6/1
5	LUBIE'S MUSIC	8%	11/1	12/1
2	MARS MAGIC	7%	15/1	15/1
3	IMA JOKER	7%	15/1	8/1

R2Chalk2VAN GOGH STYLE23%7/22/1

No edge on our top pick — the market has it priced about right.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
2	VAN GOGH STYLE	23%	7/2	2/1
5	ZAKIEL	22%	7/2	5/2
4	DE FACTO	20%	4/1	5/1
3	MICKEY	16%	5/1	3/1
6	PRACTICAL BLAME	11%	8/1	6/1
1	BELLO ROSSO	8%	12/1	15/1

R3Lean6LET HER FLY27%3/15/2

Our top-rated horse. A small edge, under our bet line.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
6	LET HER FLY	27%	3/1	5/2
1	DREAM SEEKER	20%	4/1	3/1
3	AUTOMATIC PRESS	16%	5/1	4/1
8	WILDCATTER	11%	8/1	6/1
7	SUPER SPIKE	9%	10/1	8/1
5	SAUDI RUNNER	7%	12/1	10/1
2	DEE SNOOK	6%	15/1	8/1
4	OSCAR STORM	4%	25/1	20/1

R6Scramble5PERFECT SMILE17%5/17/2

Wide-open heat; no separation we'd trust.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
5	PERFECT SMILE	17%	5/1	7/2
1	COTTA RIDE	13%	13/2	4/1
3	HOW IT IS	11%	8/1	12/1
11	MY BABYCAKES	11%	8/1	3/1
4	SPY IN DISGUISE	10%	9/1	20/1
2	SALTY SISS	9%	10/1	6/1
12	SURPRISE D' ORO	7%	12/1	12/1
8	CINDYS BEACH HOUSE	6%	15/1	12/1
9	QUEEN OF BANTRY	5%	20/1	15/1
7	BORACAY MISS	4%	20/1	20/1
6	CHAMPAGNIA	4%	25/1	20/1
10	SHEDUNIT	2%	50/1	30/1

R7Chalk2PRIVATE GEM18%9/24/1

No edge on our top pick — the market has it priced about right.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
2	PRIVATE GEM	18%	9/2	4/1
1	ROGUE LEGEND	13%	13/2	8/1
3	MESCALERO	11%	8/1	8/1
4	POSEIDON'S LAW	11%	8/1	3/1
7	VALIANT SON	10%	9/1	10/1
8	LEGAL HEIR	10%	9/1	8/1
9	YACOWLEF	10%	9/1	6/1
6	SIR ROCKET	9%	11/1	12/1
10	RE ARMED JON	6%	15/1	12/1
5	DR. MY EYES	3%	30/1	12/1

R10Scramble10MONGOLIAN MAX16%11/27/2

Wide-open heat; no separation we'd trust.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
10	MONGOLIAN MAX	16%	11/2	7/2
4	ROYAL 'N RANDO	14%	6/1	3/1
6	SHORTMAN	13%	13/2	12/1
8	MICI'S EXPRESS	11%	8/1	4/1
3	OOBUBBAKAKAYO	10%	9/1	10/1
2	CUPID'S CRUSADER	9%	10/1	8/1
9	CATHAL	8%	11/1	12/1
1	BIG JUANITO	8%	12/1	8/1
5	SUNSET STORM	5%	20/1	15/1
7	LEVON	5%	20/1	20/1

R11Chalk5GOJE19%9/27/2

No edge on our top pick — the market has it priced about right.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
5	GOJE	19%	9/2	7/2
2	RYAN'S GIRL	15%	6/1	5/1
4	FIBONACCIS RIDE	12%	7/1	8/1
11	WILD WEST COAST	10%	9/1	8/1
10	HELLO KID O KID O	10%	9/1	12/1
8	NEWPORT DREAMZ	8%	11/1	8/1
7	EIGHTIES	7%	12/1	4/1
1	IT'S A FAIRLIFE	6%	15/1	12/1
3	MPERFECTION	5%	20/1	10/1
6	KOOL MARIAH	4%	25/1	20/1
9	WHOPPER FACTOR	4%	25/1	20/1