Del Mar — Thu Jul 23, 2026

Del Mar · 8 races · published 4:17 AM ET · card locked

4 value plays today · 5 races we're passing

Edge of the Day

8CAPTAIN SHREVE

Race 2 · 5 furlongs turf

29%model5/2fair9/2boardWINpaid at the close

Our biggest edge on the card today (+11 pts over the board) — the crowd will likely bet it down, so expect a shorter number — size it smaller. Chosen by rule: the flag with the most value, graded like any other.

Public record7–8flags, W–L+11.0uflat-$2+36.7%flat-bet ROI, n=15every call hash-stamped before post →

We lose most single flags — that’s expected. The edge is price: when we’re right, the board paid more than fair. Our 30% picks win about 30% (see the calibration curve), and every call is graded against the closing odds — wins and losses.

No set price. On the tote you’re paid the closing odds, so the edge isn’t a line you beat early — it’s the gap between our fair number and where the crowd lands. We grade each flag against the actual close.

Our last miss: DMR R7 Centrodelantero, flagged at 4/1, didn’t win — on the record like every call.

Today at Del MarPatchy Fog, 71°F, wind 0 mph · rain 1% — no off-track flagNWS forecast

How this card is made & how to verify it

Edge Card v0 is a transparent heuristic, not a trained model: Prime-Power softmax blended 65/35 with the de-vigged morning line, plus published rules-based pace and trainer-form adjustments (the trainer angle is used as a model input; the raw figure is never published). Constants on the methodology page. Structured analysis, not proven edge; tracked publicly either way.

It reads Brisnet figures, pace, and trainer form — not jockey, trip, or track bias yet; those arrive with the trained v1 model. The trainer angle is used as a model input only; we never publish the raw figure. Fair odds are 1 ÷ our win probability.

The hold/shorten read on each flag is an early signal from its committed board price — long-priced flags the crowd leaves alone tend to hold, short ones get bet down. It’s a heuristic on a small sample; every call is graded on the record.

Model v0-heuristic-1.4 · cfg aab788cb · code 107bc986 · takeout (DMR) win 15.43% / exacta 22.68% · card SHA-256 5d18e4b2450b… · Scratches as of 4:00 AM ET. Late scratches void at scoring; the card is never edited.

Flags 4 of 8 races

New here? How to read a flag

Model: Our estimated win chance for the horse.
Fair: The odds that chance implies — the price where a bet breaks even.
Board: The morning line, the track's early guess at the odds.
Win bet: Bet the horse to win. Pari-mutuel pays the closing price no matter when you bet, so you're backing the horse, not a fixed price.
Hold / bet down: Whether the price should stay long or get bet down by post — how much of the edge is likely to survive.
The rest of the card: Most races. We still show our top pick and a read on it, but there's no overlay worth a bet.

Odds note: 7/2 is the same as +350.

Race 2 · 5 furlongs · turf · Md Sp WtFlag

4PRACTICAL JACK

Model

Fair

Board

14%

13/2

15/1

our win %

break-even

the morning line

We flag it because the board (15/1) pays more than our fair price (13/2). Same horse, longer price.

The market

Edge Card

14% +8 pts

▸ WIN BET · #4 to win · our fair 13/2, paid at the close

Price should hold A long board price the late money tends to leave alone, so you should still get a strong number at post — the fullest version of the edge.

Ranks #2 in our power figure blend. Even pace

Data · Brisnet

The model’s read ▾

We make PRACTICAL JACK a 14% chance in the 5 furlongs turf; the line implies about 6%, and that 8-point gap over the board is the flag.

It sits second on our power blend, close enough to the top that the price still looks generous.

To play it: a straight win bet on #4. Our fair is 13/2. On the tote you’re paid the closing price no matter when you bet, so you’re backing the horse, not a fixed price — the hold/shorten read above says how much of the edge is likely to survive to post.

Fair-value exotics ▾

Model-fair reference prices, not a +EV call. Exotics take ~20% off the top, so a pool is an overlay only when the tote's probable pays more than the fair return.

Ticket	Cost	Hit	Fair return	After ~20%
Key exacta #4 / #8, #5 longshot	$2.00	7.5%	$26.64	$21.31
Keyed trifecta #4 / #8, #5 / #8, #5, #1, #2 longshot	$3.00	5.1%	$58.55	$46.84

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
8	CAPTAIN SHREVE	29%	5/2	7/2
5	BOGARTS BUCCHERO	18%	9/2	3/1
4	PRACTICAL JACK ◀	14%	13/2	12/1
1	BULLWHACKER	12%	15/2	6/1
2	PARKER'S CANDY	8%	11/1	5/1
3	RUNNING SPARTAN	8%	12/1	4/1
7	FUZZY STARE	8%	12/1	10/1
6	FLAUBERT	4%	25/1	10/1

Race 2 · 5 furlongs · turf · Md Sp WtFlag

8CAPTAIN SHREVE

Model

Fair

Board

29%

5/2

9/2

our win %

break-even

the morning line

We flag it because the board (9/2) pays more than our fair price (5/2). Same horse, longer price.

The market

18%

Edge Card

29% +11 pts

▸ WIN BET · #8 to win · our fair 5/2, paid at the close

Likely bet down A short board price the late money bets down. Still a win play, but expect a shorter number by post — pari-mutuel pays the closing price, so the edge is thinner here. Size it smaller.

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend. Even pace

Data · Brisnet

The model’s read ▾

This is the widest gap on today’s card. We make CAPTAIN SHREVE a 29% shot in the 5 furlongs turf, where the morning line — take stripped out — sits near 18%. When our number is 11 points clear of the board, that disagreement is the whole reason to be here.

It tops our power blend for the race; on the numbers it’s the most likely winner, whatever the odds say.

To play it: a straight win bet on #8. Our fair is 5/2. On the tote you’re paid the closing price no matter when you bet, so you’re backing the horse, not a fixed price — the hold/shorten read above says how much of the edge is likely to survive to post.

Fair-value exotics ▾

Model-fair reference prices, not a +EV call. Exotics take ~20% off the top, so a pool is an overlay only when the tote's probable pays more than the fair return.

Ticket	Cost	Hit	Fair return	After ~20%
Key exacta #8 / #5, #4 value	$2.00	13%	$15.43	$12.34
Keyed trifecta #8 / #5, #4 / #5, #4, #1, #2 value	$3.00	8.4%	$35.84	$28.67

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
8	CAPTAIN SHREVE ◀	29%	5/2	7/2
5	BOGARTS BUCCHERO	18%	9/2	3/1
4	PRACTICAL JACK	14%	13/2	12/1
1	BULLWHACKER	12%	15/2	6/1
2	PARKER'S CANDY	8%	11/1	5/1
3	RUNNING SPARTAN	8%	12/1	4/1
7	FUZZY STARE	8%	12/1	10/1
6	FLAUBERT	4%	25/1	10/1

Race 6 · 1 1/16 miles · turf · OClm 100000bFlag

8CANTO DELLA TERRA

Model

Fair

Board

24%

3/1

5/1

our win %

break-even

the morning line

We flag it because the board (5/1) pays more than our fair price (3/1). Same horse, longer price.

The market

16%

Edge Card

24% +8 pts

▸ WIN BET · #8 to win · our fair 3/1, paid at the close

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend. Lone speed

Data · Brisnet

The model’s read ▾

We make CANTO DELLA TERRA a 24% chance in the 1 1/16 miles turf; the line implies about 16%, and that 8-point gap over the board is the flag.

On the figures it’s the one we rate highest in here, so a longer price reads as the market underrating it.

It profiles as lone speed, likely alone on the lead.

To play it: a straight win bet on #8. Our fair is 3/1. On the tote you’re paid the closing price no matter when you bet, so you’re backing the horse, not a fixed price — the hold/shorten read above says how much of the edge is likely to survive to post.

Fair-value exotics ▾

Model-fair reference prices, not a +EV call. Exotics take ~20% off the top, so a pool is an overlay only when the tote's probable pays more than the fair return.

Ticket	Cost	Hit	Fair return	After ~20%
Key exacta #8 / #7, #4 value	$2.00	9.6%	$20.80	$16.64
Keyed trifecta #8 / #7, #4 / #7, #4, #3, #2 longshot	$3.00	5.2%	$57.16	$45.73

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
8	CANTO DELLA TERRA ◀	24%	3/1	4/1
7	THE WHITE LADY	19%	4/1	7/2
4	MI CONFESION	11%	8/1	8/1
3	RIBBONS	10%	9/1	9/2
2	BOJACA BLESSING	9%	10/1	8/1
6	DREAMING OF ABBA	8%	11/1	5/1
9	ROSELEE MAY	8%	11/1	15/1
5	PURA VIDA PRINCESA	7%	15/1	8/1
1	GRECIAN GODDESS	4%	25/1	12/1

Race 8 · 1 mile · turf · Clm 25000n2lFlag

9SUNTORY TIME

Model

Fair

Board

17%

5/1

8/1

our win %

break-even

the morning line

We flag it because the board (8/1) pays more than our fair price (5/1). Same horse, longer price.

The market

11%

Edge Card

17% +5 pts

▸ WIN BET · #9 to win · our fair 5/1, paid at the close

Price may move A mid board price — it can hold or shorten into post. You are paid the closing price either way, so bet the horse and take the number you get.

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend. Even pace

Data · Brisnet

The model’s read ▾

We make SUNTORY TIME a 17% chance in the 1 mile turf; the line implies about 11%, and that 5-point gap over the board is the flag.

It tops our power blend for the race; on the numbers it’s the most likely winner, whatever the odds say.

To play it: a straight win bet on #9. Our fair is 5/1. On the tote you’re paid the closing price no matter when you bet, so you’re backing the horse, not a fixed price — the hold/shorten read above says how much of the edge is likely to survive to post.

Fair-value exotics ▾

Model-fair reference prices, not a +EV call. Exotics take ~20% off the top, so a pool is an overlay only when the tote's probable pays more than the fair return.

Ticket	Cost	Hit	Fair return	After ~20%
Key exacta #9 / #6, #1 longshot	$2.00	6.9%	$28.86	$23.09
Keyed trifecta #9 / #6, #1 / #6, #1, #2, #4 longshot	$3.00	3.5%	$84.51	$67.61

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
6	ELITE HEAT	20%	4/1	3/1
9	SUNTORY TIME ◀	17%	5/1	6/1
1	MOTET	15%	6/1	7/2
2	RICH OF JOY	9%	10/1	6/1
4	LADY OF POWER	8%	12/1	6/1
3	ZARAFA	8%	12/1	12/1
7	CAN'T SAY THAT	7%	12/1	12/1
10	GREEN ZONE	7%	12/1	10/1
5	DRAGON KAT	5%	20/1	20/1
8	SAARISELKA	4%	20/1	15/1

Multi-race tickets the whole card, keyed on our reads

Late Pick 4 (R5–R8)

Build	Cost	Hit	Fair return	After ~20%
Conviction	$0.50	0.26%	$190.90	$152.72
R5 #5 · R6 #8 · R7 #2 · R8 #9
Coverage	$2.00	0.72%	$276.69	$221.35
R5 #5, #7 · R6 #8 · R7 #2, #4 · R8 #9

Late Pick 5 (R4–R8)

Build	Cost	Hit	Fair return	After ~20%
Conviction	$1.00	0.09%	$1056.74	$845.39
R4 #5, #1 · R5 #5 · R6 #8 · R7 #2 · R8 #9
Coverage	$8.00	0.47%	$1711.65	$1369.32
R4 #5, #1, #7, #6 · R5 #5, #7 · R6 #8 · R7 #2, #4 · R8 #9

Early Pick 5 (R1–R5)

Build	Cost	Hit	Fair return	After ~20%
Conviction	$1.00	0.1%	$1047.07	$837.66
R1 #5 · R2 #8 · R3 #3 · R4 #5, #1 · R5 #5
Coverage	$16.00	1%	$1595.46	$1276.37
R1 #5, #3 · R2 #8 · R3 #3, #9 · R4 #5, #1, #7, #6 · R5 #5, #7

Pick 6 (R3–R8)

Build	Cost	Hit	Fair return	After ~20%
Conviction	$0.40	0.02%	$2134.84	$1707.87
R3 #3 · R4 #5, #1 · R5 #5 · R6 #8 · R7 #2 · R8 #9
Coverage	$6.40	0.17%	$3815.33	$3052.26
R3 #3, #9 · R4 #5, #1, #7, #6 · R5 #5, #7 · R6 #8 · R7 #2, #4 · R8 #9

Rolling Pick 3 (R6–R8)

Build	Cost	Hit	Fair return	After ~20%
Conviction	$0.50	1.3%	$38.43	$30.74
R6 #8 · R7 #2 · R8 #9
Coverage	$1.00	1.9%	$52.68	$42.14
R6 #8 · R7 #2, #4 · R8 #9

Rolling Pick 3 (R1–R3)

Build	Cost	Hit	Fair return	After ~20%
Conviction	$0.50	1.31%	$38.08	$30.46
R1 #5 · R2 #8 · R3 #3
Coverage	$2.00	4.07%	$49.11	$39.29
R1 #5, #3 · R2 #8 · R3 #3, #9

Whole-card tickets keyed on our reads — a tight conviction build and a wider coverage build, singling the flags and spreading the open races. Reference construction, not a +EV call: the hit % assumes the legs are independent (v0 doesn’t model pace or scratches across races), and only the flagged legs are graded bets.

The rest of the card our read on every race — analysis, not a bet

R1Chalk5SENDIT MO23%7/28/5

No edge on our top pick — the market has it priced about right.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
5	SENDIT MO	23%	7/2	8/5
3	UECKER	16%	5/1	4/1
1	JOKER WENT WILD	15%	11/2	7/2
7	JALISCO	14%	6/1	6/1
6	STANFORD DROPOUT	13%	7/1	8/1
4	ORIGINAL ONE	10%	9/1	8/1
2	CRUCIBLE	9%	10/1	15/1

R3Lean3PLEASE BEHAVE20%4/14/1

Our top-rated horse. A small edge, under our bet line.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
3	PLEASE BEHAVE	20%	4/1	4/1
9	SHEMAKESMEMAD	16%	5/1	3/1
4	BLONDYS FORZA	13%	13/2	5/1
8	TAM'S SWISS MISS	13%	13/2	5/1
5	HARKETTE	11%	8/1	6/1
7	CLUBHOUSE ROSE	9%	10/1	8/1
2	ZAYDA AT THE SPA	6%	15/1	12/1
6	OBHAYVE	6%	15/1	12/1
1	VAHEVALA	5%	20/1	15/1

R4Scramble5LADY MARYANN18%9/24/1

Wide-open heat; no separation we'd trust.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
5	LADY MARYANN	18%	9/2	4/1
1	JENNYS WINE GIRL	18%	9/2	7/2
7	UNBINDING	17%	5/1	3/1
6	WATCH OVER US	12%	15/2	6/1
4	FAMOUS FORZA	11%	8/1	6/1
2	BUTTERFLY BEACH	9%	10/1	8/1
3	EGYPTIAN MISTRESS	9%	10/1	10/1
8	SURFIN THE COAST	6%	15/1	12/1

R5Chalk5DONT SHORT UR SELF20%4/13/1

No edge on our top pick — the market has it priced about right.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
5	DONT SHORT UR SELF	20%	4/1	3/1
7	IMNOSURETHING	18%	9/2	7/2
4	QUICK UP	13%	13/2	5/1
3	BREAKAWAY BABE	13%	7/1	5/1
2	VEGAS DEL ORO	9%	10/1	8/1
10	ISLAND SPLASH	8%	12/1	12/1
1	CHACHACHA CHING	6%	15/1	12/1
6	THIRSTY ETERNA	6%	15/1	12/1
9	SHE'S MY STAR	5%	20/1	20/1
8	KOOL IT	2%	30/1	12/1

R7Lean2POKERKNIGHTATVEES32%2/12/1

Our top-rated horse. A small edge, under our bet line.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
2	POKERKNIGHTATVEES	32%	2/1	2/1
4	MAJESTIC PALISADES	15%	6/1	7/2
5	THE G M	12%	7/1	9/2
8	JOHN METCALFE	12%	15/2	8/1
1	CHECK'S ON THE WAY	10%	9/1	6/1
6	STOLEN TREASURE	8%	11/1	8/1
3	J T'S WATCH	6%	15/1	12/1
7	CAGEY BURGLAR	5%	20/1	15/1