Del Mar — Sun Jul 19, 2026
How this card is made & how to verify it
Edge Card v0 is a transparent heuristic, not a trained model: Prime-Power softmax blended 65/35 with the de-vigged morning line, plus published rules-based pace and trainer-form adjustments (the trainer angle is used as a model input; the raw figure is never published). Constants on the methodology page. Structured analysis, not proven edge; tracked publicly either way.
It reads Brisnet figures, pace, and trainer form — not jockey, trip, or track bias yet; those arrive with the trained v1 model. The trainer angle is used as a model input only; we never publish the raw figure. Fair odds are 1 ÷ our win probability.
The hold/shorten read on each flag is an early signal from its committed board price — long-priced flags the crowd leaves alone tend to hold, short ones get bet down. It’s a heuristic on a small sample; every call is graded on the record.
New here? How to read a flag
- Model
- Our estimated win chance for the horse.
- Fair
- The odds that chance implies — the price where a bet breaks even.
- Board
- The morning line, the track's early guess at the odds.
- Play at X or better
- Only bet if you can get that price or longer. The edge is in the price.
- Pass
- Most races. Our number agrees with the board, so there's nothing to bet.
The model’s read ▾
A quiet longshot to open Del Mar. We make Freddy Five Four about a 15% chance in the five-and-a-half maiden claimer, and the board has it out past that — a six-point gap on a horse the crowd isn't paying much attention to. It sits second on our figures, close enough to the top that the price reads a step generous.
Fair is 6/1; take 13/2 or better. This is the kind of long price the late money tends to leave alone, so unlike a short favorite it may actually still be there at post. But it's a maiden claimer — keep it to a unit, no heartbreak if it comes up short.
Fair-value exotics ▾
| Ticket | Our prob | Fair $2 payoff |
|---|---|---|
| Exacta #7–#4 | 4.7% | $42.91 |
| #7 over #4, #5, #2 | 9.7% | $20.55 |
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | JETWAY | 27% | 5/2 | 5/2 |
| 5 | PHAROAH'S CANDY | 18% | 9/2 | 7/2 |
| 7 | FREDDY FIVE FOUR ◀ | 15% | 6/1 | 8/1 |
| 2 | HOWIE'S LAW | 12% | 15/2 | 3/1 |
| 1 | FINIBALL | 11% | 8/1 | 6/1 |
| 6 | ELUSIVE CON | 11% | 8/1 | 5/1 |
| 3 | HOOSICK FALLS | 7% | 12/1 | 15/1 |
The model’s read ▾
The most confident number on our Del Mar card, and there's a wrinkle. We make Motorious a 38% chance in the five-furlong turf sprint — comfortably the likeliest winner we flag today — and the shape helps: four early-speed types up front, and this one comes from off it, so we pushed its figure up for the pace it gets to run at.
The catch is the price. Fair is 8/5, and a horse this live at a number this short gets bet down — our read is the value is likely gone by post, so the discipline is the whole game here. Take 9/5 or better and pass if it's shorter, which it may well be. A quality play at a fair number, not at any number.
Fair-value exotics ▾
| Ticket | Our prob | Fair $2 payoff |
|---|---|---|
| Exacta #6–#4 | 11.1% | $17.95 |
| #6 over #4, #2, #7 | 26.7% | $7.49 |
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | MOTORIOUS ◀ | 38% | 8/5 | 2/1 |
| 4 | SUMTER | 18% | 9/2 | 3/1 |
| 2 | FLYOVER | 14% | 6/1 | 6/1 |
| 7 | SORRENTO SKY | 11% | 8/1 | 5/1 |
| 5 | BOOK SMART | 8% | 12/1 | 5/1 |
| 3 | CALL ME CORY | 6% | 15/1 | 8/1 |
| 1 | NESSO'S LASTHARRAH | 5% | 20/1 | 12/1 |
The model’s read ▾
A speed angle we're a little cautious on. Fair Question tops our figures in the five-furlong turf maiden, but it wants the lead and it's not alone — four in here have early speed, so we docked its number for the fight up front. Even docked, our 15% clears the board by six points.
Fair 6/1, play 13/2 or better. The long price is the saving grace: it's not a horse the crowd will hammer, so the number should hold to post even if the pace gets messy. One unit, eyes open on the speed duel.
Fair-value exotics ▾
| Ticket | Our prob | Fair $2 payoff |
|---|---|---|
| Exacta #2–#10 | 3% | $66.41 |
| #2 over #10, #4, #6 | 7.6% | $26.35 |
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | POSITIVE TIMES | 18% | 9/2 | 3/1 |
| 4 | LUCKY N SMART | 16% | 5/1 | 7/2 |
| 2 | FAIR QUESTION ◀ | 15% | 6/1 | 8/1 |
| 6 | SIRNAMI | 11% | 8/1 | 6/1 |
| 12 | STILL BULLETPROOF | 10% | 10/1 | 12/1 |
| 1 | PROOF HE GOES | 9% | 10/1 | 8/1 |
| 3 | MENDEZLEBANK | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 |
| 7 | CHAOTIC NEUTRAL | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 |
| 8 | TIGER SMILING | 5% | 20/1 | 12/1 |
| 5 | VICTORIA'S ROCKET | 3% | 30/1 | 12/1 |
| 9 | OM GROWN TOMATOES | 1% | 50/1 | 30/1 |
| 11 | SCORCHING HOT | 1% | 99/1 | 30/1 |
The model’s read ▾
Our widest gap on the Del Mar card. We make Zalamo a 21% shot in the mile-and-a-sixteenth turf claimer, ten points clear of where the board has it, and it tops our figures with an honest even-pace setup — nobody loose on the lead to steal it.
Fair 7/2, play 4/1 or better. This one's a toss-up on price: at a 6/1 morning line it could hold, or the money could find it and bring it in. Watch the board near post — it's a play only if it's still 4/1 or better when you get there.
Fair-value exotics ▾
| Ticket | Our prob | Fair $2 payoff |
|---|---|---|
| Exacta #6–#5 | 3.6% | $55.08 |
| #6 over #5, #9, #10 | 9.4% | $21.31 |
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | ZALAMO ◀ | 21% | 7/2 | 6/1 |
| 5 | ENTERDADRAGON | 13% | 13/2 | 6/1 |
| 9 | PHOSPHORESCENCE | 11% | 15/2 | 3/1 |
| 10 | CHARGE FOR GOLD | 10% | 9/1 | 5/1 |
| 4 | GOLD FOOT | 8% | 11/1 | 12/1 |
| 11 | CALM SEA | 7% | 12/1 | 12/1 |
| 7 | AH JEEZ | 7% | 15/1 | 8/1 |
| 1 | EMPIRE'S CLASSIC | 5% | 15/1 | 20/1 |
| 13 | GEOMETRY | 5% | 20/1 | 15/1 |
| 3 | ONE OF THESE DAYS | 4% | 20/1 | 12/1 |
| 8 | JIMMY BLUE JEANS | 4% | 25/1 | 12/1 |
| 12 | DON'T SWEAR DAVE | 3% | 30/1 | 20/1 |