Saratoga & Del Mar · 2026 Meets · Model v0-heuristic-1.4 the anti-tout
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Transparent racing cards · Locked before post · Every pick graded

Del Mar, Sat Aug 22, 2026

4 value plays today · 7 races we're passing
StatusCompleted · races run
First post5:00 PM ET
Scratch checkLast checked 6:05 AM ET
Archived card · races already run

These plays were published and locked before first post on Sat Aug 22, 2026. They are kept exactly as published, wins and losses alike, and are no longer actionable. Prices shown were the qualifying prices at publication.

Every selection we have ever published is graded on the record. The methodology is on the methodology page.

Edge of the Day
10VENTRY STRAND
Race 3 · 1 1/16 miles turf
22%model7/2fair5/1boardWINpaid at the close
Our biggest edge on the card today (+9 pts over the board), the price may move either way into post; you’re paid the close. Chosen by rule: the flag with the most value, graded like any other.
Today at Del MarMostly Sunny, 80°F, wind 0 to 5 mph · rain 1%, no off-track flagNWS forecast
Flags 4 of 11 races
Race 1 · 1 mile · turf · Maiden claiming $50,000FlagShare
8FLAMBOYANT
Model
Fair
Board
16%
5/1
8/1
our win %
break-even
the morning line
▸ WIN BET · paid at the close
shorterlonger, pays more5/1 break-even8/1 board
Price should hold A long board price the late money tends to leave alone, so you should still get a strong number at post, the fullest version of the edge.
Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.
Data · Brisnet
How it sets up
Even pace11 going

No one horse is entitled to the lead. A field this size means traffic is the risk in here, not the pace. Two have shown early speed, under the count that would rate the race contested.

It rates second on our own win number, 1.5 points behind the top.

Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoard
1BOGARTS BUCCHERO18%9/27/2
8FLAMBOYANT 16%5/18/1
3PLETTENBERG BAY15%11/26/1
4BORN TO ROCK12%7/15/1
9MIGHTY TORO12%15/28/1
5ELUSIVE CON7%12/16/1
6RAGING INFERNO7%12/15/1
10FINIBALL4%25/112/1
2PYROKINETIC3%30/120/1
7HEAVENLY MATCH3%30/120/1
11BLACK PEARL2%50/120/1
Race 3 · 1 1/16 miles · turf · Optional claiming $20,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterFlagShare
10VENTRY STRAND
Model
Fair
Board
22%
7/2
5/1
our win %
break-even
the morning line
▸ WIN BET · paid at the close
shorterlonger, pays more7/2 break-even5/1 board
Price may move A mid board price, it can hold or shorten into post. You are paid the closing price either way, so bet the horse and take the number you get.
Ranks #1 in our power figure blend. Barn angle strong here
Data · Brisnet
How it sets up
Even pace12 going

Nothing in here has a clear claim on the lead. A field this size means traffic is the risk in here, not the pace. Only one has shown genuine early speed, without enough company to rate the race contested.

The model’s read ▾

This is the widest gap on today’s card. When our number is that far clear of the board, the disagreement is the whole reason to be here.

It tops our own win number, 4.4 points clear of the next one.

Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoard
10VENTRY STRAND 22%7/25/1
12ALLEQUIN SUMMER18%9/29/2
4TRUMP ERA13%7/17/2
9CHROMEFLASH11%8/18/1
5STYLISHLYACCLAIMED6%15/16/1
7FEELING LUCKY5%20/110/1
11CARDIFF CRACK5%20/115/1
2ORACLE OF PARADISE5%20/112/1
6MOMENT OF VALOR5%20/115/1
3SOGNO DI VINO4%25/115/1
8KING OF DRAGONS4%25/115/1
1NAFTIS3%30/130/1
Race 7 · 1 mile · turf · Optional claiming $100,000, non-winners of two other than maiden, claiming or starterFlagShare
6CENTRODELANTERO
Model
Fair
Board
15%
11/2
8/1
our win %
break-even
the morning line
▸ WIN BET · paid at the close
shorterlonger, pays more11/2 break-even8/1 board
Price should hold A long board price the late money tends to leave alone, so you should still get a strong number at post, the fullest version of the edge.
Ranks #1 in our power figure blend. Barn angle strong here
Data · Brisnet
How it sets up
Contested4 of 12 want the lead
Go forward211
Pace helps159

Four of the 12 are entitled to the early lead, so the early fractions over a mile on turf in a $100,000 allowance optional claimer should be contested rather than soft.

The model’s read ▾

It rates second on our own win number, 0.5 points behind the top, and with 4 of them wanting the front the early fractions should be honest.

4 of the 12 want the front over a mile on turf, so the early fractions should be honest.

Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoard
10FIRST PEACE16%11/27/2
6CENTRODELANTERO 15%11/28/1
5AMERICAN HOPE13%7/18/1
8LONESOME STEW11%8/16/1
7CAPTAIN CHOOCHIES9%10/16/1
2CHARLIE'S TO BLAME9%11/15/1
1ADIOS COLE8%11/112/1
4ARRAKIS6%15/18/1
11MORUNNING4%20/115/1
9TEMPUS VOLAT4%25/120/1
12MAN AMONG MEN4%25/120/1
3MISCHIEF RIVER2%50/120/1
Race 9 · 1 1/8 miles · turf · Grade 1 stakesFlagShare
9KENSINGTON LANE
Model
Fair
Board
25%
3/1
3/1
our win %
break-even
the morning line
The board and our fair price round to the same number (3/1), so the gap is finer than fractional odds show, it is +5.6 points of win probability, not a longer price.
▸ WIN BET · paid at the close
shorterlonger, pays more3/1 break-even3/1 board
Likely bet down A short board price the late money bets down. Still a win play, but expect a shorter number by post, pari-mutuel pays the closing price, so the edge is thinner here. Size it smaller.
Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.
Data · Brisnet
How it sets up
Contested3 of 10 want the lead
Go forward9
Pace helps16

Three of the 10 are entitled to the early lead, so the early fractions over a mile and an eighth on turf in a Grade 1 should be contested rather than soft.

The model’s read ▾

It tops our own win number, 9.3 points clear of the next one, and with 3 of them wanting the front the early fractions should be honest.

3 of the 10 want the front over a mile and an eighth on turf, so the early fractions should be honest.

Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoard
9KENSINGTON LANE 25%3/13/1
4GREEN CARRERA16%11/27/2
3TAM TAM16%11/24/1
10RAIDING PARTY14%13/24/1
6INBOX9%10/110/1
1VICTORIOUS DREAM6%15/112/1
7PEANUTBUTTERBOMBE6%15/112/1
5DEFINE3%30/115/1
2LOOKIN AT DIAMOND3%30/115/1
8WILD LIKE THE WEST2%50/130/1
The whole card every runner, our number beside the board
Every runner on the card: our win probability and fair odds beside the morning line, with the edge between them. Sortable by any column.
R#HorseModelFairBoardEdgeWhy
R11 mile turfMaiden claiming $50,000Even pace1 flag
R11BOGARTS BUCCHERO18%9/27/203·B·
R18FLAMBOYANT16%5/18/1+71···
R13PLETTENBERG BAY15%11/26/1+42···
R14BORN TO ROCK12%7/15/1-15···
R19MIGHTY TORO12%15/28/1+34···
R15ELUSIVE CON7%12/16/1-46···
R16RAGING INFERNO7%12/15/1-67···
R110FINIBALL4%25/112/1-28···
R12PYROKINETIC3%30/120/109···
R17HEAVENLY MATCH3%30/120/1-110·B·
R111BLACK PEARL2%50/120/1-211···
R26 furlongs dirtClaiming $12,500, non-winners of two lifetimeContested pace likely (7 early-speed types)pass
R29SHADY STRIPES26%3/12/101·B·
R26MY GIRL MIA14%13/24/1-22··
R22CHURCH LADY13%13/25/103·B·
R28CELESTIAL SKIES9%10/112/1+34·B·
R23VRONAWAY8%11/112/1+25··
R24SUGAREE7%15/112/1+16···
R21OM TIME GAL6%15/120/1+27··
R212LOVE LOCK4%25/112/1-210··
R210RICH OF JOY4%25/18/1-512··
R214DANZIG TIL DAWN4%25/130/1+18··
R213SUSIE'S LOADED4%25/130/1+19··
R211SEXY BLUE2%30/112/1-311B·
R31 1/16 miles turfOptional claiming $20,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterEven pace1 flag
R310VENTRY STRAND22%7/25/1+91·B·
R312ALLEQUIN SUMMER18%9/29/2+42·B·
R34TRUMP ERA13%7/17/2-54···
R39CHROMEFLASH11%8/18/1+23·B·
R35STYLISHLYACCLAIMED6%15/16/1-510···
R37FEELING LUCKY5%20/110/1-28···
R311CARDIFF CRACK5%20/115/105···
R32ORACLE OF PARADISE5%20/112/1-17···
R36MOMENT OF VALOR5%20/115/106···
R33SOGNO DI VINO4%25/115/1-19···
R38KING OF DRAGONS4%25/115/1-111···
R31NAFTIS3%30/130/1012···
R41 mile dirtMaiden special weightEven pacepass
R45MOTGA27%5/22/1+1··B·
R42BOSS MAN BOLT17%5/15/1+41·B·
R47PSALM17%5/17/20····
R46TAKE A PICTURE15%6/13/1-52···
R44FLIGHT CLUB11%8/16/10····
R43BABE'S EMPIRE6%15/112/10··B·
R41WILL DO ONE6%15/112/103·B·
R55 furlongs turfGrade 2 stakesEven pacepass
R56MOTORIOUS26%3/15/2+31···
R55SUMTER14%13/24/1-23···
R53MAN O ROSE14%13/25/102···
R58NO NAY HUDSON11%8/15/1-25···
R57VIRAT10%9/110/1+34···
R59SORRENTO SKY9%10/18/106···
R51MONSTER5%20/115/107···
R52MESCALERO5%20/115/108···
R510SARATOGA SPECIAL4%25/115/1-19···
R54INCANTO3%30/120/1-110···
R65 1/2 furlongs dirtMaiden special weightEven pacepass
R66FURIOSITY18%9/27/2+1··B·
R69SEA'S NO JOKE17%5/14/1+1··B·
R67CONFETTI RAIN16%11/24/10····
R63MISS MIDTERM9%10/18/10····
R68LUCILLE B9%10/18/10····
R65GIRLS WEAR PEARLS8%11/18/1-11·B·
R64DEAR DIARY7%12/110/10····
R611THEBEACHISBACK7%12/18/1-23···
R61CHASEHER6%15/120/1+22···
R62GRAMMY'S GAL4%25/120/10····
R71 mile turfOptional claiming $100,000, non-winners of two other than maiden, claiming or starterContested pace likely (4 early-speed types)1 flag
R710FIRST PEACE16%11/27/2-22···
R76CENTRODELANTERO15%11/28/1+61·B·
R75AMERICAN HOPE13%7/18/1+43··
R78LONESOME STEW11%8/16/104·B·
R77CAPTAIN CHOOCHIES9%10/16/1-26···
R72CHARLIE'S TO BLAME9%11/15/1-47··
R71ADIOS COLE8%11/112/1+25··
R74ARRAKIS6%15/18/1-28···
R711MORUNNING4%20/115/109··
R79TEMPUS VOLAT4%25/120/1010··
R712MAN AMONG MEN4%25/120/1011···
R73MISCHIEF RIVER2%50/120/1-212···
R81 mile dirtOptional claiming $50,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterContested pace likely (3 early-speed types)pass
R85PURE MADNESS17%5/15/1+41··
R87MAGNIFY17%5/13/1-22···
R84NATIVE LAND14%13/27/2-44···
R89SANTARENA13%13/25/103·B·
R88CLOUSEAU12%15/25/1-15··
R86FROSTY INDULGENCE8%12/115/1+37··
R81CHARLIE FOXTROT7%12/112/1+16···
R83BERLIN WALL6%15/112/108···
R82HONKY TONK HIGHWAY5%20/112/1-19···
R91 1/8 miles turfGrade 1 stakesContested pace likely (3 early-speed types)1 flag
R99KENSINGTON LANE25%3/13/1+61··
R94GREEN CARRERA16%11/27/2-2··B·
R93TAM TAM16%11/24/102···
R910RAIDING PARTY14%13/24/1-23·B·
R96INBOX9%10/110/1+24··
R91VICTORIOUS DREAM6%15/112/106··
R97PEANUTBUTTERBOMBE6%15/112/105···
R95DEFINE3%30/115/1-17···
R92LOOKIN AT DIAMOND3%30/115/1-28···
R98WILD LIKE THE WEST2%50/130/1-19···
R101 1/4 miles dirtGrade 1 stakesEven pacepass
R1011KNIGHTSBRIDGE26%3/15/2+31···
R107HIT SHOW12%7/16/1+12···
R102FORGED STEEL12%7/15/1-13···
R109NAVAJO WARRIOR10%9/18/1+14···
R103FINGER8%11/18/10··B·
R1010FULL SERRANO7%15/18/1-26···
R105MALARCHUK6%15/110/1-17···
R106ORIGINAL SIN6%15/115/1+15···
R108BRITISH ISLES4%20/112/1-29···
R101OM N JOY4%25/120/1+18···
R104SUBSANADOR4%25/112/1-210···
R111 mile turfGrade 2 stakesEven pacepass
R1112EL POTENTE20%4/17/2+21·B·
R119KING OF GOSFORD13%7/15/102···
R117ALMENDARES11%8/16/1-13···
R115DETAIN9%10/110/1+24···
R116SINSEL9%10/18/10··B·
R111CABO SPIRIT8%12/18/1-16···
R112SEAL TEAM8%12/115/1+35···
R1110FLYOVER7%15/110/1-18···
R114FREEDOM'S NOT FREE6%15/112/107···
R113ARTISLAS4%25/115/1-19···
R1111TWIRLING POINT4%25/112/1-210···
R118ASTRONOMER2%50/120/1-211·B·

Why reads left to right: rank on our power-figure blend, whether the pace shape helps (▲) or hurts (▼), the barn (B) and the morning (W). Green is positive, red negative, a dot means nothing to say. Model and Fair are ours; Board is the morning line.

Price your own ticket

The exotics builder, the sequence builder and the style ranker all run against this card, 11 races of it, at the real minimum and the real takeout. They live on one page so there is one of each to trust.

Open the builders →

The rest of the card our read on every race: analysis, not a bet
R2Chalk9Shady Stripes26%3/12/1
How it sets up
dirtContested7 of 12 want the lead
Go forward611121314
Pace helps1310
The board and our number agree in a $12,500 claimer. Seven horses want the front, so the early fractions should be honest. The barn's angle in this exact spot is among the best in the field.
Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoard
9SHADY STRIPES26%3/12/1
6MY GIRL MIA14%13/24/1
2CHURCH LADY13%13/25/1
8CELESTIAL SKIES9%10/112/1
3VRONAWAY8%11/112/1
4SUGAREE7%15/112/1
1OM TIME GAL6%15/120/1
12LOVE LOCK4%25/112/1
10RICH OF JOY4%25/18/1
14DANZIG TIL DAWN4%25/130/1
13SUSIE'S LOADED4%25/130/1
11SEXY BLUE2%30/112/1
R4Chalk5Motga27%5/22/1
How it sets up
dirtEven pace7 going
The board and our number agree in a maiden special weight. We make the top one 27% against the board's 26%. The barn's angle in this exact spot is among the best in the field.
Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoard
5MOTGA27%5/22/1
2BOSS MAN BOLT17%5/15/1
7PSALM17%5/17/2
6TAKE A PICTURE15%6/13/1
4FLIGHT CLUB11%8/16/1
3BABE'S EMPIRE6%15/112/1
1WILL DO ONE6%15/112/1
R5Lean6Motorious26%3/15/2
How it sets up
turfEven pace10 going
Our top-rated horse in a Grade 2. We make the top one 26% against the board's 23%. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 3 points.
Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoard
6MOTORIOUS26%3/15/2
5SUMTER14%13/24/1
3MAN O ROSE14%13/25/1
8NO NAY HUDSON11%8/15/1
7VIRAT10%9/110/1
9SORRENTO SKY9%10/18/1
1MONSTER5%20/115/1
2MESCALERO5%20/115/1
10SARATOGA SPECIAL4%25/115/1
4INCANTO3%30/120/1
R6Scramble6Furiosity18%9/27/2
How it sets up
dirtEven pace10 going
A full field of ten. Nothing separates the top two by more than 1.8 points. We make the top one 18% against the board's 18%. The barn's angle in this exact spot is among the best in the field.
Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoard
6FURIOSITY18%9/27/2
9SEA'S NO JOKE17%5/14/1
7CONFETTI RAIN16%11/24/1
3MISS MIDTERM9%10/18/1
8LUCILLE B9%10/18/1
5GIRLS WEAR PEARLS8%11/18/1
4DEAR DIARY7%12/110/1
11THEBEACHISBACK7%12/18/1
1CHASEHER6%15/120/1
2GRAMMY'S GAL4%25/120/1
R8Lean5Pure Madness17%5/15/1
How it sets up
dirtContested3 of 9 want the lead
Pace helps568
Our top-rated horse in a $50,000 allowance optional claimer. Three of them want the lead. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 4 points.
Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoard
5PURE MADNESS17%5/15/1
7MAGNIFY17%5/13/1
4NATIVE LAND14%13/27/2
9SANTARENA13%13/25/1
8CLOUSEAU12%15/25/1
6FROSTY INDULGENCE8%12/115/1
1CHARLIE FOXTROT7%12/112/1
3BERLIN WALL6%15/112/1
2HONKY TONK HIGHWAY5%20/112/1
R10Lean11Knightsbridge26%3/15/2
How it sets up
dirtEven pace11 going
Our top-rated horse in a Grade 1. We make the top one 26% against the board's 22%. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 3 points.
Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoard
11KNIGHTSBRIDGE26%3/15/2
7HIT SHOW12%7/16/1
2FORGED STEEL12%7/15/1
9NAVAJO WARRIOR10%9/18/1
3FINGER8%11/18/1
10FULL SERRANO7%15/18/1
5MALARCHUK6%15/110/1
6ORIGINAL SIN6%15/115/1
8BRITISH ISLES4%20/112/1
1OM N JOY4%25/120/1
4SUBSANADOR4%25/112/1
R11Lean12El Potente20%4/17/2
How it sets up
turfEven pace12 going
Our top-rated horse in a Grade 2. We make the top one 20% against the board's 18%. The barn's angle in this exact spot is among the best in the field. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 2 points.
Full field ▾
#HorseModelFairBoard
12EL POTENTE20%4/17/2
9KING OF GOSFORD13%7/15/1
7ALMENDARES11%8/16/1
5DETAIN9%10/110/1
6SINSEL9%10/18/1
1CABO SPIRIT8%12/18/1
2SEAL TEAM8%12/115/1
10FLYOVER7%15/110/1
4FREEDOM'S NOT FREE6%15/112/1
3ARTISLAS4%25/115/1
11TWIRLING POINT4%25/112/1
8ASTRONOMER2%50/120/1

Model v0-heuristic-1.4 · cfg aab788cb · code d22ad90a · takeout (DMR) win 15.43% / exacta 22.68% · card SHA-256 36db7c843b6c… · Scratch status last checked at 6:05 AM ET, not re-confirmed since. Late scratches void at scoring; the card is never edited.

Edge Card runs a proprietary pre-race probability process: market expectations combined with licensed past-performance, pace, field-composition and connections information, evaluated within each race. Exact implementation details are not published. Structured analysis, not a proven edge; tracked publicly either way. How to read this card · the method in full · every call graded

Verifying this card

Downloadable artifact hash36db7c843b6c2c23e7865e5dc40a996c6ba215186b7c40a1e296dcdd9ea9ad84
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