Saratoga, Fri Aug 21, 2026

10 races · published 11:57 AM ET · card locked

4 value plays today · 6 races we're passing

StatusCompleted · races run

First post1:10 PM ET

Scratch checkChecked · 10:15 AM ET

Archived card · races already run

These plays were published and locked before first post on Fri Aug 21, 2026. They are kept exactly as published, wins and losses alike, and are no longer actionable. Prices shown were the qualifying prices at publication.

Every selection we have ever published is graded on the record. The methodology is on the methodology page.

Edge of the Day

3BOSTON'S PHINEST

Race 8 · 5 1/2 furlongs turf

43%model7/5fair7/5boardWINpaid at the close

Our biggest edge on the card today (+8 pts over the board), the crowd will likely bet it down, so expect a shorter number, so size it smaller. Chosen by rule: the flag with the most value, graded like any other.

Today at SaratogaSunny, 80°F, wind 3 to 7 mph · rain 0%, no off-track flagNWS forecast

Flags 4 of 10 races

New here? How to read a flag · Model, Fair, Board and the pari-mutuel closing rule, explained once.

Today’s plays4 flags

RaceHorseModelBoardEdge

R13Cugino44%8/5+6 pts R21Quick To Accuse19%5/1+6 pts R76Georgia Magic27%4/1+6 pts R83Boston's Phinest43%7/5+8 pts

Race 1 · 1 3/16 miles · turf · Optional claiming $110,000Flag

3CUGINO

Model

Fair

Board

44%

6/5

8/5

our win %

break-even

the morning line

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Likely bet down A short board price the late money bets down. Still a win play, but expect a shorter number by post, pari-mutuel pays the closing price, so the edge is thinner here. Size it smaller.

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Even pace4 going

No one horse is entitled to the lead. A field this small should mean a clean trip for everyone, which puts the weight back on ability. Only one has shown genuine early speed, without enough company to rate the race contested.

The model’s read ▾

CUGINO is one of the more likely winners we flag today, and the board still prices it like a longer shot. The gap is smaller in points than some, but it is on a horse we genuinely rate to win.

It tops our own win number, 14.3 points clear of the next one.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
3	CUGINO ◀	44%	6/5	8/5
1	TIZ DASHING	30%	5/2	2/1
2	CARSON'S RUN	16%	11/2	5/1
4	CAPTURE THE FLAG	10%	9/1	8/1

Race 2 · 1 mile · dirt · Optional claiming $45,000Flag

1QUICK TO ACCUSE

Model

Fair

Board

19%

9/2

5/1

our win %

break-even

the morning line

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Price may move A mid board price, it can hold or shorten into post. You are paid the closing price either way, so bet the horse and take the number you get.

Ranks #2 in our power figure blend.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Contested3 of 7 want the lead

Go forward5

Pace helps13

Three of the 7 are entitled to the early lead, so the early fractions over a mile on dirt in a $45,000 allowance optional claimer should be contested rather than soft.

The model’s read ▾

It rates third on our own win number, 3.8 points behind the top, and with 3 of them wanting the front the early fractions should be honest.

3 of the 7 want the front over a mile on dirt, and this one profiles to come from off it, so we pushed its number up for that (×1.1).

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
5	DR. KRAFT	23%	7/2	3/1
3	WHITTINGTON PARK	22%	7/2	5/2
1	QUICK TO ACCUSE ◀	19%	9/2	5/1
4	SHADOW DRAGON	13%	13/2	7/2
6	CONCORDE SPIRIT	11%	8/1	9/2
2	PALACE BOSS	7%	12/1	8/1
7	JACKSON HEIGHTS	6%	15/1	15/1

Race 7 · 1 1/8 miles · dirt · Optional claiming $80,000, non-winners of two other than maiden, claiming or starterFlag

6GEORGIA MAGIC

Model

Fair

Board

27%

5/2

4/1

our win %

break-even

the morning line

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Likely bet down A short board price the late money bets down. Still a win play, but expect a shorter number by post, pari-mutuel pays the closing price, so the edge is thinner here. Size it smaller.

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend; projects as the lone early speed. Barn angle strong here

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Lone speedone gets loose on the lead, 7 going

Alone on the lead6

One of the 7 looks alone on the lead, clear of the field on the early figures over a mile and an eighth on dirt, with nothing else in here entitled to go with it.

The model’s read ▾

It tops our own win number, 9.3 points clear of the next one, in a race where one of them looks like getting loose on the lead.

In a field of 7 it profiles as the lone speed over a mile and an eighth on dirt, likely uncontested on the front end, and we bumped it for that (×1.15).

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
6	GEORGIA MAGIC ◀	27%	5/2	4/1
7	SOLO VENTURI	17%	5/1	3/1
8	COOKE CREEK	13%	13/2	6/1
1	ALAN TURING	12%	15/2	12/1
5	SHERLOCK'S JEWEL	12%	15/2	10/1
4	RENDER JUDGMENT	12%	15/2	5/1
2	RACING DRIVER	7%	12/1	15/1

Race 8 · 5 1/2 furlongs · turf · Optional claiming $55,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterFlag

3BOSTON'S PHINEST

Model

Fair

Board

43%

7/5

our win %

break-even

the morning line

The board and our fair price round to the same number (7/5), so the gap is finer than fractional odds show, it is +7.8 points of win probability, not a longer price.

▸ WIN BET · paid at the close

Likely bet down A short board price the late money bets down. Still a win play, but expect a shorter number by post, pari-mutuel pays the closing price, so the edge is thinner here. Size it smaller.

Ranks #1 in our power figure blend.

Data · Brisnet

How it sets up

Even pace6 going

Nobody in here is clearly entitled to the lead. Two have shown early speed, under the count that would rate the race contested.

The model’s read ▾

BOSTON'S PHINEST is one of the more likely winners we flag today, and the board still prices it like a longer shot. The gap is smaller in points than some, but it is on a horse we genuinely rate to win.

It tops our own win number, 26.7 points clear of the next one.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
3	BOSTON'S PHINEST ◀	43%	7/5	7/5
6	SOD SIREN	16%	11/2	7/2
1	ONE LAST KNOCK	16%	11/2	4/1
7	ONLY FOR NOW	13%	7/1	9/2
2	STAR OF LIFE	10%	9/1	8/1
4	RATU JAWA	4%	25/1	15/1

The whole card every runner, our number beside the board

Every runner on the card: our win probability and fair odds beside the morning line, with the edge between them. Sortable by any column.
R	#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board	Edge	Why
R11 3/16 miles turfOptional claiming $110,000Even pace1 flag
R1	3	CUGINO	44%	6/5	8/5	+6	1···
R1	1	TIZ DASHING	30%	5/2	2/1	-3	2···
R1	2	CARSON'S RUN	16%	11/2	5/1	-1	3···
R1	4	CAPTURE THE FLAG	10%	9/1	8/1	-1	4···
R21 mile dirtOptional claiming $45,000Contested pace likely (3 early-speed types)1 flag
R2	5	DR. KRAFT	23%	7/2	3/1	+3	1▼··
R2	3	WHITTINGTON PARK	22%	7/2	5/2	0	3▲··
R2	1	QUICK TO ACCUSE	19%	9/2	5/1	+6	2▲··
R2	4	SHADOW DRAGON	13%	13/2	7/2	-4	4···
R2	6	CONCORDE SPIRIT	11%	8/1	9/2	-3	5···
R2	2	PALACE BOSS	7%	12/1	8/1	-1	6···
R2	7	JACKSON HEIGHTS	6%	15/1	15/1	+1	7···
R31 mile dirtMaiden special weightEven pacepass
R3	2	JADORLINIJA	28%	5/2	2/1	+2	1···
R3	3	MOONLIT	25%	3/1	8/5	-5	2···
R3	7	HYPNOTICA	13%	7/1	4/1	-3	4···
R3	5	FULL OF TACT	12%	15/2	12/1	+6	3·B·
R3	1	ROMALA	10%	9/1	6/1	-1	5···
R3	6	EPIC SELLOFF	9%	10/1	10/1	+2	6·B·
R3	4	MASQUERADEMISTRESS	4%	25/1	20/1	0	····
R46 furlongs dirtClaiming $35,000, non-winners of two lifetimeContested pace likely (4 early-speed types)pass
R4	2	ISLAND TOWN	28%	5/2	2/1	-3	1▼··
R4	3	TARTABULL	18%	9/2	6/1	+5	2···
R4	7	METATRON	15%	11/2	9/2	-2	5▲··
R4	1	NASH POTATOES	15%	11/2	4/1	-3	6▲··
R4	5	UNAUTHORIZED	13%	13/2	8/1	+3	3▼··
R4	8	ROCHESTER	10%	9/1	8/1	0	4▼··
R55 1/2 furlongs turfMaiden special weightEven pacepass
R5	3	RAISE THE ROOF	19%	9/2	7/2	0	····
R5	8	FIRE MARSHAL	18%	9/2	4/1	+1	1···
R5	2	GOOD AIM	18%	9/2	4/1	0	····
R5	9	TINIAN	12%	7/1	9/2	-3	2···
R5	5	GNOSIS	12%	15/2	6/1	0	····
R5	6	PYRALIS	10%	9/1	8/1	0	··B·
R5	1	BET ON ZION	7%	15/1	20/1	+3	3···
R5	7	SCALENE	5%	20/1	15/1	0	··B·
R61 1/16 miles turfMaiden special weightEven pacepass
R6	3	GOLDEN SIREN	26%	3/1	5/2	+4	1···
R6	8	ENERGY FLOWS	17%	5/1	3/1	-2	2·B·
R6	6	DOVES AND HAWKS	15%	6/1	9/2	+1	····
R6	2	DETERMINED SCHOLES	13%	13/2	5/1	0	····
R6	5	BELISA	12%	15/2	6/1	+1	··B·
R6	4	ENCRYPTING	9%	10/1	8/1	0	····
R6	1	BELMONT STREET	5%	20/1	15/1	0	····
R6	7	HAVE HOPE	3%	30/1	12/1	-3	3···
R71 1/8 miles dirtOptional claiming $80,000, non-winners of two other than maiden, claiming or starterLone speed1 flag
R7	6	GEORGIA MAGIC	27%	5/2	4/1	+6	1▲B·
R7	7	SOLO VENTURI	17%	5/1	3/1	-8	4···
R7	8	COOKE CREEK	13%	13/2	6/1	-1	5···
R7	1	ALAN TURING	12%	15/2	12/1	+4	2···
R7	5	SHERLOCK'S JEWEL	12%	15/2	10/1	+3	3···
R7	4	RENDER JUDGMENT	12%	15/2	5/1	-5	6···
R7	2	RACING DRIVER	7%	12/1	15/1	+1	7···
R85 1/2 furlongs turfOptional claiming $55,000, non-winners of one other than maiden, claiming or starterEven pace1 flag
R8	3	BOSTON'S PHINEST	43%	7/5	7/5	+8	1···
R8	6	SOD SIREN	16%	11/2	7/2	-3	3···
R8	1	ONE LAST KNOCK	16%	11/2	4/1	-1	2·B·
R8	7	ONLY FOR NOW	13%	7/1	9/2	-3	4···
R8	2	STAR OF LIFE	10%	9/1	8/1	0	··B·
R8	4	RATU JAWA	4%	25/1	15/1	-2	5·B·
R91 1/8 miles dirtStakes, $200,000 purseEven pacepass
R9	3	VENETTA	23%	7/2	5/2	-4	2···
R9	4	IRON ORCHARD	23%	7/2	3/1	-1	1···
R9	5	LADY ROSE	13%	7/1	8/1	+2	4···
R9	1	POWER OF WOMEN	12%	7/1	10/1	+4	3···
R9	8	UNLOCK THE VALUE	11%	8/1	9/2	-6	7···
R9	6	NEW YORK SPECIAL	10%	9/1	12/1	+3	5···
R9	7	VICTORY HALL	8%	12/1	15/1	+2	6···
R101 1/16 miles turfMaiden special weightEven pacepass
R10	7	AMAZING GRACER	21%	4/1	4/1	+5	1···
R10	2	FELIXYN	17%	5/1	3/1	-2	3···
R10	3	ZAP THAT GHOST	17%	5/1	7/2	-1	2···
R10	8	COACH OF THE YEAR	13%	7/1	9/2	-1	4···
R10	1	GANDERELLA	11%	15/2	5/1	-1	5···
R10	4	FIFTY SHADES FREE	11%	8/1	6/1	0	····
R10	6	NO NEED TO PANIC	7%	15/1	20/1	+3	6···
R10	5	MAGIC IN MY EYES	4%	25/1	12/1	-2	7···

Why reads left to right: rank on our power-figure blend, whether the pace shape helps (▲) or hurts (▼), the barn (B) and the morning (W). Green is positive, red negative, a dot means nothing to say. Model and Fair are ours; Board is the morning line.

Price your own ticket

The exotics builder, the sequence builder and the style ranker all run against this card, 10 races of it, at the real minimum and the real takeout. They live on one page so there is one of each to trust.

Open the builders →

The rest of the card our read on every race: analysis, not a bet

R3Chalk2Jadorlinija28%5/22/1

How it sets up

dirtEven pace7 going

The board and our number agree in a maiden special weight. We make the top one 28% against the board's 26%. We make the favourite, #3 MOONLIT, 25% against the board's 30%, shorter than we think it should be. Our own top-rated is #2 JADORLINIJA. We are not betting the race; take it as an opinion, not a play.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
2	JADORLINIJA	28%	5/2	2/1
3	MOONLIT	25%	3/1	8/5
7	HYPNOTICA	13%	7/1	4/1
5	FULL OF TACT	12%	15/2	12/1
1	ROMALA	10%	9/1	6/1
6	EPIC SELLOFF	9%	10/1	10/1
4	MASQUERADEMISTRESS	4%	25/1	20/1

R4Chalk2Island Town28%5/22/1

How it sets up

dirtContested4 of 6 want the lead

Go forward258

Pace helps17

The board and our number agree in a $35,000 claimer. Four horses want the front, so the early fractions should be honest.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
2	ISLAND TOWN	28%	5/2	2/1
3	TARTABULL	18%	9/2	6/1
7	METATRON	15%	11/2	9/2
1	NASH POTATOES	15%	11/2	4/1
5	UNAUTHORIZED	13%	13/2	8/1
8	ROCHESTER	10%	9/1	8/1

R5Scramble3Raise The Roof19%9/27/2

How it sets up

turfEven pace8 going

An open heat. Nothing separates the top two by more than 1.3 points. We make the top one 19% against the board's 19%.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
3	RAISE THE ROOF	19%	9/2	7/2
8	FIRE MARSHAL	18%	9/2	4/1
2	GOOD AIM	18%	9/2	4/1
9	TINIAN	12%	7/1	9/2
5	GNOSIS	12%	15/2	6/1
6	PYRALIS	10%	9/1	8/1
1	BET ON ZION	7%	15/1	20/1
7	SCALENE	5%	20/1	15/1

R6Lean3Golden Siren26%3/15/2

How it sets up

turfEven pace8 going

Our top-rated horse in a maiden special weight. We make the top one 26% against the board's 22%. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 4 points.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
3	GOLDEN SIREN	26%	3/1	5/2
8	ENERGY FLOWS	17%	5/1	3/1
6	DOVES AND HAWKS	15%	6/1	9/2
2	DETERMINED SCHOLES	13%	13/2	5/1
5	BELISA	12%	15/2	6/1
4	ENCRYPTING	9%	10/1	8/1
1	BELMONT STREET	5%	20/1	15/1
7	HAVE HOPE	3%	30/1	12/1

R9Chalk3Venetta23%7/25/2

How it sets up

dirtEven pace7 going

The board and our number agree in a starter allowance. We make the top one 23% against the board's 27%.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
3	VENETTA	23%	7/2	5/2
4	IRON ORCHARD	23%	7/2	3/1
5	LADY ROSE	13%	7/1	8/1
1	POWER OF WOMEN	12%	7/1	10/1
8	UNLOCK THE VALUE	11%	8/1	9/2
6	NEW YORK SPECIAL	10%	9/1	12/1
7	VICTORY HALL	8%	12/1	15/1

R10Lean7Amazing Gracer21%4/14/1

How it sets up

turfEven pace8 going

Our top-rated horse in a maiden special weight. We make the top one 21% against the board's 16%. The edge is real but sits under our bet line at 5 points.

Full field ▾

#	Horse	Model	Fair	Board
7	AMAZING GRACER	21%	4/1	4/1
2	FELIXYN	17%	5/1	3/1
3	ZAP THAT GHOST	17%	5/1	7/2
8	COACH OF THE YEAR	13%	7/1	9/2
1	GANDERELLA	11%	15/2	5/1
4	FIFTY SHADES FREE	11%	8/1	6/1
6	NO NEED TO PANIC	7%	15/1	20/1
5	MAGIC IN MY EYES	4%	25/1	12/1

Model v0-heuristic-1.4 · cfg aab788cb · code d22ad90a · takeout (SAR) win 16% / exacta 18.5% · card SHA-256 5270b9fb42b7… · Scratch status checked at 10:15 AM ET. Late scratches void at scoring; the card is never edited.

Edge Card runs a proprietary pre-race probability process: market expectations combined with licensed past-performance, pace, field-composition and connections information, evaluated within each race. Exact implementation details are not published. Structured analysis, not a proven edge; tracked publicly either way. How to read this card · the method in full · every call graded

Verifying this card

Downloadable artifact hash	`5270b9fb42b742a40881c40b1ea6a91dc288755f514db57708fe0040bcdea6f6`
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