Saratoga — Sun Jul 26, 2026
We lose most single flags — that’s expected. The edge is price: when we’re right, the board paid more than fair. Our 30% picks win about 30% (see the calibration curve), and every call is graded against the closing odds — wins and losses.
No set price. On the tote you’re paid the closing odds, so the edge isn’t a line you beat early — it’s the gap between our fair number and where the crowd lands. We grade each flag against the actual close.
Our last miss: SAR R11 Tuthilltown, flagged at 12/1, didn’t win — on the record like every call.
How this card is made & how to verify it
Edge Card v0 is a transparent heuristic, not a trained model: Prime-Power softmax blended 65/35 with the de-vigged morning line, plus published rules-based pace and trainer-form adjustments (the trainer angle is used as a model input; the raw figure is never published). Constants on the methodology page. Structured analysis, not proven edge; tracked publicly either way.
It reads Brisnet figures, pace, and trainer form — not jockey, trip, or track bias yet; those arrive with the trained v1 model. The trainer angle is used as a model input only; we never publish the raw figure. Fair odds are 1 ÷ our win probability.
The hold/shorten read on each flag is an early signal from its committed board price — long-priced flags the crowd leaves alone tend to hold, short ones get bet down. It’s a heuristic on a small sample; every call is graded on the record.
New here? How to read a flag
- Model
- Our estimated win chance for the horse.
- Fair
- The odds that chance implies — the price where a bet breaks even.
- Board
- The morning line, the track's early guess at the odds.
- Win bet
- Bet the horse to win. Pari-mutuel pays the closing price no matter when you bet, so you're backing the horse, not a fixed price.
- Hold / bet down
- Whether the price should stay long or get bet down by post — how much of the edge is likely to survive.
- The rest of the card
- Most races. We still show our top pick and a read on it, but there's no overlay worth a bet.
The model’s read ▾
We make CHARLOTTESUNIVERSE a 21% chance in the 1 1/16 miles turf; the line implies about 11%, and that 10-point gap over the board is the flag.
It tops our power blend for the race; on the numbers it’s the most likely winner, whatever the odds say.
The race sets up with contested early pace (5 speed types), a shape that tends to favor closers.
To play it: a straight win bet on #2. Our fair is 4/1. On the tote you’re paid the closing price no matter when you bet, so you’re backing the horse, not a fixed price — the hold/shorten read above says how much of the edge is likely to survive to post.
Fair-value exotics ▾
| Ticket | Cost | Hit | Fair return | After ~20% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key exacta #2 / #1, #7 value | $2.00 | 8.1% | $24.83 | $19.86 |
| Keyed trifecta #2 / #1, #7 / #1, #7, #5, #9 longshot | $3.00 | 4.6% | $65.33 | $52.26 |
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | CHARLOTTESUNIVERSE ◀ | 21% | 4/1 | 6/1 |
| 1 | SHE TAKES CASH | 15% | 11/2 | 4/1 |
| 7 | LIVIN THE BREEZE | 15% | 11/2 | 5/2 |
| 5 | TONGUE TWISTER | 11% | 8/1 | 6/1 |
| 9 | MARVELOUS MADISON | 10% | 9/1 | 7/2 |
| 3 | FEDUPWITHTHEFED | 8% | 11/1 | 12/1 |
| 6 | LAST GLORY | 7% | 15/1 | 15/1 |
| 8 | FABULOUS FOX | 6% | 15/1 | 15/1 |
| 4 | FULL POUR | 4% | 30/1 | 20/1 |
| 10 | MIAMI STYLE | 3% | 30/1 | 30/1 |
The model’s read ▾
We make SAMARTINA a 23% chance in the 1 1/16 miles turf; the line implies about 17%, and that 6-point gap over the board is the flag.
On the figures it’s the one we rate highest in here, so a longer price reads as the market underrating it.
The race sets up with contested early pace (3 speed types), and this one profiles to come from off it — we pushed its number up for that (×1.1).
To play it: a straight win bet on #7. Our fair is 7/2. On the tote you’re paid the closing price no matter when you bet, so you’re backing the horse, not a fixed price — the hold/shorten read above says how much of the edge is likely to survive to post.
Fair-value exotics ▾
| Ticket | Cost | Hit | Fair return | After ~20% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key exacta #7 / #6, #2 value | $2.00 | 8.2% | $24.50 | $19.60 |
| Keyed trifecta #7 / #6, #2 / #6, #2, #8, #1 longshot | $3.00 | 4.3% | $69.75 | $55.80 |
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | SAMARTINA ◀ | 23% | 7/2 | 7/2 |
| 6 | OUTRO | 14% | 6/1 | 9/2 |
| 2 | MAJESTIC MOONLIGHT | 13% | 13/2 | 6/1 |
| 8 | DEVILISH GRIN | 11% | 8/1 | 6/1 |
| 1 | PLAYING GAMES | 9% | 10/1 | 5/1 |
| 11 | JUST TELL ANNE | 8% | 12/1 | 6/1 |
| 12 | MAPPY | 7% | 12/1 | 12/1 |
| 5 | BESIDE YOU | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 |
| 4 | SWEET MACKENZIE | 5% | 20/1 | 15/1 |
| 10 | ADDAGIRL ADDIE | 2% | 50/1 | 30/1 |
| 3 | PAY THE BILLS | 1% | 99/1 | 50/1 |
| 9 | RIYAH AL NIL | 1% | 99/1 | 50/1 |
The model’s read ▾
This is the widest gap on today’s card. We make MAIDA a 24% shot in the 6 furlongs dirt, where the morning line — take stripped out — sits near 13%. When our number is 11 points clear of the board, that disagreement is the whole reason to be here.
It sits second on our power blend, close enough to the top that the price still looks generous.
It profiles as lone speed — likely uncontested on the front end, a real edge we bumped it for (×1.15).
To play it: a straight win bet on #1. Our fair is 3/1. On the tote you’re paid the closing price no matter when you bet, so you’re backing the horse, not a fixed price — the hold/shorten read above says how much of the edge is likely to survive to post.
Fair-value exotics ▾
| Ticket | Cost | Hit | Fair return | After ~20% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key exacta #1 / #6, #4 value | $2.00 | 16.4% | $12.21 | $9.77 |
| Keyed trifecta #1 / #6, #4 / #6, #4, #2, #3 value | $3.00 | 14% | $21.47 | $17.18 |
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | GRAND JOB | 41% | 3/2 | 1/2 |
| 1 | MAIDA ◀ | 24% | 3/1 | 5/1 |
| 4 | HAULIN ICE | 12% | 7/1 | 4/1 |
| 2 | KAPPA KAPPA | 10% | 9/1 | 10/1 |
| 3 | STRIKER HAS DIAL | 8% | 12/1 | 10/1 |
| 5 | GOING STEADY | 4% | 25/1 | 30/1 |
| 7 | DO GOODER | 2% | 50/1 | 30/1 |
The model’s read ▾
PHANTOM BLUE is one of the more likely winners we flag today — a 33% chance in the 1 3/8 miles turf the board still prices like a longer shot (about 22% once you strip the take). The gap is smaller in points (11) but it’s on a horse we genuinely rate to win.
Our power-rating blend makes it the best of this field — which is why the board’s price looks a step generous.
To play it: a straight win bet on #10. Our fair is 2/1. On the tote you’re paid the closing price no matter when you bet, so you’re backing the horse, not a fixed price — the hold/shorten read above says how much of the edge is likely to survive to post.
Fair-value exotics ▾
| Ticket | Cost | Hit | Fair return | After ~20% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key exacta #10 / #7, #9 value | $2.00 | 15.2% | $13.12 | $10.50 |
| Keyed trifecta #10 / #7, #9 / #7, #9, #2, #8 value | $3.00 | 9.9% | $30.37 | $24.30 |
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | PHANTOM BLUE ◀ | 33% | 2/1 | 5/2 |
| 7 | WHITETHORN | 18% | 9/2 | 2/1 |
| 9 | MARY LOIS | 13% | 7/1 | 6/1 |
| 2 | AMERICAN DEBUTANTE | 10% | 9/1 | 8/1 |
| 8 | ONEHOTMESS | 8% | 11/1 | 12/1 |
| 5 | DON'T LOOK NOW | 5% | 20/1 | 12/1 |
| 1 | EENYMEANYMIGHTYMO | 5% | 20/1 | 12/1 |
| 4 | ISADORA DUNCAN | 4% | 20/1 | 12/1 |
| 6 | ABUNDANT LOVE | 2% | 30/1 | 15/1 |
| 3 | RAGING BLOOM | 1% | 50/1 | 30/1 |
| Build | Cost | Hit | Fair return | After ~20% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conviction | $0.50 | 0.3% | $164.34 | $131.47 |
| R7 #3 · R8 #1 · R9 #4 · R10 #10 | ||||
| Coverage | $2.00 | 0.86% | $231.86 | $185.49 |
| R7 #3, #4 · R8 #1 · R9 #4, #5 · R10 #10 | ||||
| Build | Cost | Hit | Fair return | After ~20% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conviction | $0.50 | 0.07% | $715.13 | $572.10 |
| R6 #7 · R7 #3 · R8 #1 · R9 #4 · R10 #10 | ||||
| Coverage | $2.00 | 0.2% | $1008.96 | $807.17 |
| R6 #7 · R7 #3, #4 · R8 #1 · R9 #4, #5 · R10 #10 | ||||
| Build | Cost | Hit | Fair return | After ~20% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conviction | $1.00 | 0.07% | $1427.80 | $1142.24 |
| R1 #6 · R2 #5 · R3 #2 · R4 #3, #9 · R5 #2 | ||||
| Coverage | $16.00 | 0.73% | $2203.80 | $1763.04 |
| R1 #6, #4 · R2 #5, #4 · R3 #2, #1 · R4 #3, #9, #4, #2 · R5 #2 | ||||
| Build | Cost | Hit | Fair return | After ~20% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conviction | $0.20 | 0.01% | $1377.91 | $1102.33 |
| R5 #2 · R6 #7 · R7 #3 · R8 #1 · R9 #4 · R10 #10 | ||||
| Coverage | $0.80 | 0.04% | $1944.04 | $1555.23 |
| R5 #2 · R6 #7 · R7 #3, #4 · R8 #1 · R9 #4, #5 · R10 #10 | ||||
| Build | Cost | Hit | Fair return | After ~20% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conviction | $1.00 | 1.56% | $63.91 | $51.13 |
| R4 #3, #9 · R5 #2 · R6 #7 | ||||
| Coverage | $2.00 | 2.79% | $71.58 | $57.26 |
| R4 #3, #9, #4, #2 · R5 #2 · R6 #7 | ||||
| Build | Cost | Hit | Fair return | After ~20% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conviction | $0.50 | 0.78% | $64.46 | $51.57 |
| R5 #2 · R6 #7 · R7 #3 | ||||
| Coverage | $1.00 | 1.34% | $74.54 | $59.63 |
| R5 #2 · R6 #7 · R7 #3, #4 | ||||
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | SHOWA | 20% | 4/1 | 3/1 |
| 4 | HIGH OFFICIAL | 17% | 5/1 | 7/2 |
| 2 | GENEVA LAKE | 16% | 11/2 | 4/1 |
| 8 | JERSEY GUY | 16% | 11/2 | 4/1 |
| 3 | HARBAUGH | 11% | 8/1 | 6/1 |
| 1 | KIPROS | 8% | 11/1 | 8/1 |
| 5 | LE PATRON | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 |
| 7 | BLUE LAW | 6% | 15/1 | 12/1 |
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | SON OF A BIRCH | 25% | 3/1 | 5/2 |
| 4 | VACATION DANCE | 16% | 5/1 | 9/2 |
| 6 | SHEFFLIN | 15% | 6/1 | 3/1 |
| 8 | NIAGARA SKYLINE | 14% | 6/1 | 6/1 |
| 2 | FLUID SITUATION | 10% | 9/1 | 6/1 |
| 7 | DOCTOR JEFF | 9% | 11/1 | 8/1 |
| 3 | TRUST ISSUES | 6% | 15/1 | 20/1 |
| 1 | BILLIONAIRES ROW | 5% | 20/1 | 8/1 |
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | DON'T BE SALTY | 20% | 4/1 | 3/1 |
| 1 | BEIRA | 18% | 9/2 | 4/1 |
| 3 | KYLE'S MOM | 13% | 7/1 | 9/2 |
| 7 | KATIE KING | 12% | 15/2 | 8/1 |
| 8 | ROYAL BOBBIE | 12% | 15/2 | 5/1 |
| 5 | ANGEL BELLA | 12% | 15/2 | 4/1 |
| 4 | RACING COLORS | 8% | 11/1 | 10/1 |
| 6 | BOURBON N LACE | 5% | 20/1 | 12/1 |
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | EMIRATES ROAD | 17% | 5/1 | 5/2 |
| 9 | COUNTERSPY | 16% | 11/2 | 9/2 |
| 4 | ALTERNATE REALITY | 14% | 6/1 | 6/1 |
| 2 | FORT NELSON | 12% | 15/2 | 7/2 |
| 8 | BIG BLUE LINE | 10% | 9/1 | 8/1 |
| 7 | CASTLE CHAOS | 9% | 10/1 | 8/1 |
| 5 | FRIZZANTE | 8% | 11/1 | 8/1 |
| 1 | NOTED | 7% | 12/1 | 15/1 |
| 6 | CELESTIAL GLAZE | 7% | 15/1 | 15/1 |
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | WILLINTORISKITALL | 16% | 5/1 | 7/2 |
| 4 | GOLDEN SYMPHONY | 12% | 15/2 | 6/1 |
| 10 | ART FAIR | 11% | 8/1 | 8/1 |
| 7 | SOUTH BEND TOM | 10% | 9/1 | 9/2 |
| 11 | EGYPTIAN | 10% | 9/1 | 10/1 |
| 6 | DISCOTHEQUE | 9% | 10/1 | 6/1 |
| 1 | MOMENTUM FILES | 8% | 11/1 | 8/1 |
| 2 | HOT PROPERTY | 7% | 12/1 | 8/1 |
| 8 | MASTER FREUD | 7% | 12/1 | 10/1 |
| 9 | BEARY FUNNY | 6% | 15/1 | 20/1 |
| 5 | CONNIVING | 3% | 30/1 | 30/1 |
Full field ▾
| # | Horse | Model | Fair | Board |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | SENIOR OFFICER | 24% | 3/1 | 9/5 |
| 5 | SACROSANCT | 15% | 11/2 | 6/1 |
| 2 | BRING THE SMOKE | 10% | 9/1 | 8/1 |
| 8 | TIP TOP THOMAS | 10% | 9/1 | 7/2 |
| 7 | OVER AND OLLIE | 8% | 11/1 | 10/1 |
| 6 | IGNITE THE LIGHT | 8% | 11/1 | 15/1 |
| 9 | ACOUSTIC AVE | 8% | 11/1 | 8/1 |
| 3 | TARANTINO | 8% | 12/1 | 15/1 |
| 10 | LIGHT MAN | 5% | 20/1 | 20/1 |
| 1 | STARS AND STRIDES | 4% | 25/1 | 12/1 |